Dan Campbell has taken a lot of heat for his aggressiveness on fourth downs this season. But the analytical metrics strongly favor what Campbell is doing as the Detroit Lions head coach.
In fact, the Lions are now the NFL’s best at deciding when to go for it on fourth downs according to the analytical study from date expert Ben Baldwin. Detroit and Campbell moved to the top with a successful Week 16 slate of decisions.
Note that the data doesn’t track the success rate, just the choice to go for it versus giving the ball away on a punt or kicking a field goal attempt.
The Lions have gone for it on fourth down 36 times, more than any other team. They’ve converted 18, also the most in the league — a figure that includes the successful Jack Fox pass on a fake punt attempt in the Week 16 loss to the Falcons. Campbell’s aggressiveness could challenge the NFL record for most fourth-down offensive attempts with three more in the final two weeks.
After a couple of uncharacteristic 4th down mistakes for the Chargers on Sunday, the Lions move to No. 1 in going for it when they should pic.twitter.com/LfLamUqVI7
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 29, 2021