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Football statistics, depending on what they are, can be extremely helpful. Then again, they can also be deceiving. The folks at Football Outsiders have been very creative in attempting to gauge players and teams’ actual performance and most of their stat categories tell the truthful tale.
One of those categories is DVOA (Defense-Adjusted Value over Average), a system that rates the efficiency of players, units and teams versus the performance of those groups throughout the rest of the league.
Here’s a quick explanation:
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value over Average) is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five yards on third-and-12. Red zone plays are worth more than other plays. Performance is also adjusted for the quality of the opponent. DVOA is a percentage, so a team with a DVOA of 10.0% is 10 percent better than the average team, and a quarterback with a DVOA of -20.0% is 20 percent worse than the average quarterback. Because DVOA measures scoring, defenses are better when they are negative.
Doug Farrar of Touchdown Wire has the Giants ranked 27th in the DVOA poor rankings at -8.8%.
The FO crew are not big believers in Daniel Jones, and given his splits by dropback, it’s easy to see why. On 0-1-step drops, Jones led the league with 7.4 yards per attempt. On three-step drops, that went down to 6.3 yards per attempt, and Jones’ touchdown rate dropped while his interception rate rose. On five-step drops, Jones managed just 5.5 YPA and an anemic touchdown rate of 1.9%. Not good. The Giants are projected to have an overall DVOA of -8.8%, with 7.0 Average Wins.
Several issues with this. First, Jones is now in a new offense with a brand new offensive line that is likely to protect him better in his second season. Second, those numbers are based on an offense that had either no Saquon Barkley or a hobbled one for at least eight games.
In addition, Jones has never had his full compliment of weapons to work with all at once. Not even for one game. The season began with wide receiver Golden Tate suspended for the first four games for a PED violation. When he came back, Barkley was out. After that, wide receiver Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram would miss six and eight games respectively.
Jones still managed to toss 24 touchdowns — the most by any rookie quarterback last year — throw for 3,027 yards and rush 45 times for 279 yards and two more scores. He also threw four or more touchdowns in three different games.
This year, with Jason Garrett as the Giants’ offensive coordinator, Jones should take a big leap forward. He should help reverse that DVOA number greatly.
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