The No. 5 seed Las Vegas Raiders kickoff the NFL playoffs Saturday when they visit the fourth-seeded Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in the AFC Wild Card round. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. ET (on NBC). Below, we look at the Raiders vs. Bengals odds and lines, and make our best NFL picks, predictions and bets.
Las Vegas earned its playoff berth by upsetting the Los Angeles Chargers 35-32 in overtime on Sunday Night Football in Week 18 as a 3-point home underdog. The Raiders are 8-9 against the spread (ATS) and 8-9 Over/Under (O/U) with the eighth-toughest schedule, according to Football Outsiders.
Cincy won the AFC North in Week 17 after beating the Kansas City Chiefs 34-31 as a 3.5-point home underdog The Bengals opted to rest starters in Week 18 including QB Joe Burrow. They are 10-7 ATS and 8-9 O/U with the third-easiest schedule.
The Bengals handled business against the Raiders 32-13 in Week 11 as 2.5-point road underdogs. Burrow only passed for 148 yards with a 1 TD/0 INT ratio while Las Vegas QB Derek Carr completed 19 of 27 passes for 215 yards with a 1 TD/1 INT ratio.
However, Cincy outrushed Las Vegas 159-72 yards and Bengals RB Joe Mixon gained 123 yards on 30 carries with 2 TDs.
Also see: All Wild Card odds and lines
Raiders at Bengals odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 8:45 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Raiders +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Bengals -240 (bet $240 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Raiders +5.5 (-108) | Bengals -5.5 (-112)
- Over/Under: 48.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Raiders at Bengals key injuries
Raiders
- DT Johnathan Hankins (back/knee) questionable
Bengals
- None
Let’s Make This Interesting
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Raiders at Bengals odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Raiders 23, Bengals 20
Money line
SPRINKLE on the RAIDERS (+190) with the plan of betting more on their spread. This number is juiced up based on the results of the first Raiders-Bengals meeting this season in Las Vegas Week 11.
Cincy won that game 32-13, but the score is misleading. The Bengals only led 13-6 after three quarters, and finished with just 10 more total yards than the Raiders for the game.
Las Vegas lost because of a fourth-quarter meltdown – getting outscored 19-7 – costly penalties and poor execution on third downs. The Raiders committed seven penalties for 77 yards and were 1-for-7 on third-down attempts.
Penalties and third-down conversion rates, to an extent, are highly variant stats that can heavily swing games. But penalties and third-down conversions tend to regress to the mean for teams game in and game out.
Also, Las Vegas’s pass-rush vs. Cincy’s pass blocking is the biggest mismatch in this contest.
The Bengals have the fifth-worst pass protection rating when combining Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) and ESPN’s pass-blocking grades, according to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin.
Cincy’s poor pass protection faces a Las Vegas pass rush that blitzes at the lowest rate in the league, but its defensive line has the highest-pressure rate in the NFL, according to PFF.
Finally, Vegas has a couple of offensive edges over Cincy. Raiders WR Hunter Renfrow versus the Bengals secondary is the biggest WR/CB mismatch (PFF).
Cincy’s defense ranks 26th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, so Vegas TE Darren Waller could be in for a nice playoff debut.
Again, only SPRINKLE on the RAIDERS (+190) if at all, because we are hitting their spread much harder.
Against the spread
BET RAIDERS +5.5 (-108) for 1.5 units based on the aforementioned rationale and because Las Vegas’ spread is the wiser wager.
More importantly, according to sports handicapper Steve Fezzik on R.J. Bell’s Dream Preview Podcast, teams with the tougher strength of schedule in the wild card round are 48-22-2 ATS since 2002.
On top of that, underdogs in the wild card round are 15-7 ATS (10-12 overall) over the past five seasons.
LAS VEGAS +5.5 (-108) is my favorite wager. If you’re also going to bet Las Vegas’ money line, definitely bet the spread heavier.
Over/Under
“LEAN” to the UNDER 48.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit only because I prefer the Las Vegas sides more than the total here.
Las Vegas’ defense limits big pass plays (it ranks fifth in explosive pass play allowed) and Cincy’s offense thrives on big pass plays (it ranks second in explosive pass plays), according to Sharp Football Stats.
On the other hand, Las Vegas struggles to convert on third downs and in the red zone.
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