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The AFC West takes over Sunday Night Football in Week 14 when the LA Chargers (8-4) visit the Kansas City Chiefs (11-1). Kickoff from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Chargers vs. Chiefs odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Kansas City looks to sweep the 2-game season series, following a 17-10 victory at SoFi Stadium in Week 4, a comeback win during which the Chiefs scored 17 unanswered points.
The Chiefs survived Week 13 with a 19-17 win over the Las Vegas Raiders due to a controversial game-ending call that allowed the Chiefs to decline a penalty and register a turnover. Kansas City has won 2 straight games following its Week 11 loss vs. the Buffalo Bills.
LA has cemented its likely control of a playoff spot with 5 wins across its last 6 games, most recently outlasting the Atlanta Falcons 17-13 Dec. 1.
Will Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid hold off the visiting Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh? And how should Chargers vs. Chiefs bettors handle this card?
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Chargers at Chiefs odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Friday at 8:01 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chargers +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Chiefs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chargers +4 (-110) | Chiefs -4 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 43 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Chargers at Chiefs key injuries
Chargers
- S Tony Jefferson (leg) questionable
- OLB Khalil Mack (rest) probable
- WR Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder) questionable
Chiefs
- TE Noah Gray (shoulder) probable
- T Jawaan Taylor (knee) questionable
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Chargers at Chiefs picks and predictions
Prediction
Chargers 23, Chiefs 20
Moneyline
Despite the Chiefs’ nearly spotless regular-season record, Mahomes has looked more human than any other time during this Chiefs dynasty run.
The Bolts’ defensive talent is set up to give him fits once again, especially if Taylor won’t manage to suit up, which should help the pass rush.
The Chargers that Kansas City has faced in the recent past have been undisciplined and injury-riddled. This writer views the Chiefs’ fortune and the Chargers’ newfound success as the perfect opportunity to predict a road upset.
FanDuel Sportsbook offers a more favorable ML price as of publication time, though.
BET CHARGERS +176 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Against the spread
Despite the Chiefs’ need to escape many games with a fortunate win, markets have overestimated their ability to cover lines this season; Kansas City sits at just 5-7 ATS, including a meager 2-4 at Arrowhead.
With Harbaugh’s direction and relative team health compared to previous seasons, LA has remained competitive in just about every game with an 8-4 ATS mark. That comes with an equal 4-2 in each of the home/road splits.
The Chargers will at least keep this close by preventing Mahomes from attacking with deep passes, something he’s struggled to achieve for much of this season.
Finally boasting some adept coaching to elevate its elite talent, LA will cover. Bettors who aren’t as confident in a straight-up win can opt for taking the points instead as the best bet of the week in this matchup.
BET CHARGERS +4 (-110).
Over/Under
The Chargers lead the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 15.7 points per game. Kansas City ranks 8th (19.6).
Neither team has run the ball exceptionally. The Chargers rank 18th (122.9 yards per game); the Chiefs reside at 19th (111.8).
However, 2 major potential wrenches in betting the Over: (1) McConkey being ruled inactive, and (2) the Chiefs leaning more frequently on RB Isiah Pacheco as he works back in more frequently following his Week 13 return from injured reserve.
Though I could suggest the Over so bettors have more outs — plus the push of the projected total above — the number is too tight. I can envision it breaking either way without much confidence in a direction.
PASS.
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