The Kansas State Wildcats (4-4) visit the Baylor Bears (1-5) Saturday at McLane Stadium for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff. Below, we analyze the Kansas State-Baylor college football betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
Kansas State at Baylor: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Kansas State +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Baylor -213 (bet $223 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Kansas State +5.5 (-110) | Baylor -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 45.5 (O: -115 | U: -106)
Kansas State at Baylor: Three things to know
- Kansas State took a 45-0 drubbing from Iowa State last week and was down 35-0 at halftime. Everyone who took the Wildcats getting 13.5 points was able to get on with their day a little earlier.
- Baylor had last week off but lost to Texas Tech 21-20 the week prior by a game-winning field goal as time expired. The Bears blew an 11-point lead heading into the fourth quarter and lost as 1-point favorites.
- Both programs have entered a new chapter recently as Baylor replaced former head coach Matt Rhule this season with Dave Aranda, and Kansas State is in its second season with coach Chris Klieman at the helm following a 27-season run by Bill Snyder. For what it’s worth, Baylor has won back-to-back meetings.
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Kansas State at Baylor: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 21, Kansas State 19
Money line (ML)
Kansas State’s offense has gone into the witness protection program the past three weeks and Baylor is getting closer to winning—a single-point loss at Texas Tech last week and an ATS win in a straight up loss at Iowa State on Nov. 7.
Based on these prices, I’d rather bet against Baylor than on Kansas State. But, I am not in the market for either team’s money line in this spot. PASS.
Against the spread (ATS)
It’s weird Baylor is laying 5.5 points. I don’t see it. Kansas State has been a solid ATS team this year (5-3 ATS) and the underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 Kansas State-Baylor games. Admittedly, BetMGM is more dialed into Big XII football and/or probably saw something I didn’t.
Since I’m on the Under (see below), I’ll default to the simple logic of taking an underdog with a low total and lean Kansas State +5.5 (-110) for a quarter-unit.
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 45.5 (-106) is the only play on the total. I’d like it a little more if we bet the Under before it was steamed up; the total opened at 47.5.
However, this is a quintessential pros versus joes in the total betting market: 86% of the money is on the Under, but 58% of the bets placed are on the Over.
You could make a case that both defenses are pretty good, but it’s a certainty that both offenses are terrible. Neither team can run the ball—Kansas State is 94th in yards per rush and Baylor is ranked 11th—and the weather forecast is saying rainy and windy conditions Saturday. That doesn’t bode well for the passing games, which are almost as bad as each team’s rushing attack.
My main concern is that maybe this seems too easy? The Under is 5-2 in the last 7 Kansas State-Baylor meetings. But, I’ll take my chances betting against these crappy offenses in bad weather.
GIMME UNDER 45.5 (-106) for 1 unit.
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