The Kansas City Royals (33-40) open a three-game road set against the Texas Rangers (27-48) Friday at Globe Life Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Rangers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Royals LHP Mike Minor (6-4, 4.48 ERA) comes into his 16th start with a 1.18 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 through 86 1/3 IP.
- Has given up 6 home runs through four starts in June after allowing just 2 HR across six outings in May
- Make his fifth career start at Globe Life Field with a 3.38 ERA and just 2 HR surrendered across 18 2/3 IP at his former home park
Rangers RHP Dane Dunning (2-6, 4.71 ERA) makes his 15th start for the Rangers since being acquired from the Chicago White Sox in the offseason. He enters Friday with a 1.54 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
- His 3.28 FIP suggests upcoming improvement on his ERA; he has been hurt by a .386 BABIP but is also allowing a hard-hit rate of 45.0%
- Gave up 4 runs (3 earned) over 4 IP against the Minnesota Twins Sunday to take his fourth loss in six outings (two no-decisions)
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Royals at Rangers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:05 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Rangers -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals -1.5 (+145) | Rangers +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: 8 (O: +100 | U: -120)
Prediction
Rangers 6, Royals 4
Money line (ML)
The RANGERS (-120) should be backed with Dunning undervalued due to his skewed BABIP. He induces a ground ball on 54.5% of balls in play and has a strong 3.15 ground-ball to fly-ball rate.
Minor was roughed up by his former team for 4 ER over 6 IP in his season debut but managed to get the win while receiving 11 runs of support from the offense. The Rangers struggle to generate many runs against left-handed pitching, but they’re seventh by hard-contact percentage in the split.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Back the RANGERS +1.5 (-175) as the safer, but less profitable play. The Royals are just 4-14 over their last 18 games and have scored a meager 3.33 runs per game over that time. They’re hitting .241/.307/.382 as a team since June 5.
The Rangers have also been stuck in a lengthy slump, so adding some insurance would be wise.
Over/Under (O/U)
If the starting pitching matchup wasn’t uninspiring enough, both bullpens are in the bottom 10 of MLB by xFIP over the last 14 days. Both units should see plenty of action Friday to send this game OVER 8 (+100) combined runs.
We’re also getting even-money odds as the more profitable side of the line.
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