The Kansas City Royals (16-38) and St. Louis Cardinals (24-31) meet in what is locally known as the Interstate 70 series Monday for the opener of a 2-game set at Busch Stadium. First pitch is at 2:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; St. Louis leads 8-2 over the last 2 seasons
The Royals beat the Washington Nationals 3-2 Sunday to pick up just their 2nd win in the last 9 games. They’re led by C Salvador Perez, who is hitting .282 with 12 homers and 32 RBIs at age 33. KC is just 8-17 on the road and 6-12 in interleague play.
The Cardinals coughed one up Sunday with a 4-3 defeat to the Cleveland Guardians. One of the Cardinals’ slew of problems is their bullpen, which is tied for 2nd-most in baseball with 11 blown saves. The Cards are 13-7 over the last 20 games as they have shown some life since their historically bad start to the season. They have beaten up their in-state rivals over the last few years, and there’s no reason that shouldn’t continue.
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Royals at Cardinals projected starters
RHP Josh Staumont vs. RHP Adam Wainwright
Staumont (0-0, 4.76 ERA) makes his 1st start and 19th appearance. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 5.3 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 17 innings.
- Threw 15 pitches over 2/3 IP Sunday, which means he’s likely limited to 1 or 2 innings Monday
- Throws a 97-mph sinker, 96-mph fastball, slider, curveball and split-finger fastball; opponents have the most success on his fastball but only at a .250 clip
Wainwright (2-0, 6.33 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 4.2 K/9 in 21 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K vs. Cincinnati Reds Tuesday
- Last 5 starts vs. KC: 3-1, 3.41 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 21 K in 31 2/3 IP
Royals at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:46 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Cardinals -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-105) | Cardinals -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 10 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Royals at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Cardinals 7, Royals 5
Moneyline
Waino has allowed at least 4 runs in each of his last 5 starts, although only 2 were earned runs in one of those outings. His last 3 starts came in Great American Ball Park, where he has historically struggled, and against two mashing teams in the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Dodgers. This should be a “get right” game for him as he searches for a groove after starting the year on the injured list.
I’m willing to spot the 26th-ranked KC offense 5 runs, but they allow the 3rd-most at 5.51 runs/9 and have the 3rd-worst bullpen ERA at 4.86. So there’s no reason St. Louis can’t score the 6 or 7 necessary to come out on top.
We’re not paying -210 on the Cardinals against anyone, though. Head to the Win/Total section and take CARDINALS AND OVER 5.5 TOTAL RUNS (-140).
Run line/Against the spread
The Royals are just 18-36 on the RL (11-14 on the road), and the Cards are 25-30 (10-16 at home). We’re projecting a multiple-run win for St. Louis here, but as mentioned, their bullpen is no bueno.
Let’s stick to the trends here, and if Wainwright has watched 4 runs cross the plate in each of his last 7 starts, let’s go to the Game Props section and take WILL BOTH TEAMS SCORE 3 OR MORE RUNS? YES (-150).
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Over/Under
It’s 84 degrees with a slight 5-mph breeze coming in from center field. The books have stacked the odds as if we’re in Coors Field because of Wainwright’s recent history and K.C. going with a bullpen game. We’re projecting more than 10 runs here, but it’s very possible one of the offenses just doesn’t show up. The Royals don’t score much, and the Cardinals’ bats disappear at times. So instead of playing the book’s hand, let’s look for some value elsewhere.
In the First 5 Innings section, there’s a prop bet with some value. WILL BOTH TEAMS SCORE 2 OR MORE RUNS IN THE FIRST 5 INNINGS? YES (+120).
It’s a little risky because Wainwright’s troubles generally come late in his starts, but the trends and the payout say it’s worth it.
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