The Kansas City Royals (33-39) and New York Yankees (39-34) put a lid on a three-game set at Yankee Stadium Thursday. First pitch will be at 1:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Brad Keller is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. In 15 starts this season, Keller has gone 6-7 with a 6.34 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and 4.2 BB/9 in 71 IP.
Significant control problems have cropped up for Keller over recent starts. In his last three turns, he has walked 4.9 batters per nine while posting a 9.39 ERA.
RHP Jameson Taillon is the projected starter for the Yankees. He is 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and 2.8 BB/9 in 58 IP over 13 starts.
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Royals at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:55 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Yankees -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-120) | Yankees -1.5 (+100)
- Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Yankees 6, Royals 3
Money line (ML)
These two teams have played a couple of 6-5 games in this series with each side claiming one victory. The Yankees’ 6-5 win came Wednesday night in walkoff fashion with 1B Luke Voit providing the heroics on a game-winning hit that clanged off the left-field wall.
Voit’s recent return from injury (oblique) and a surge by C Gary Sanchez have been at the center of the Yanks cranking out an .806 OPS over 13 games heading into Wednesday.
The Yankees are a lean on the ML in Thursday’s matinee in the Bronx, but only if the line brings a Yankees (-185) play into range. Otherwise, PASS.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Both starters are more likable than their surface ERAs would indicate, but of the two, Taillon is the most likely to get through 5-6 innings in quality fashion. And the Yankees hurler has held foes to a .651 OPS in his starts at home.
Kansas City is 1-6 over its last seven get-away road games. New York’s bullpen situation – both rest and performance-wise – is iffy. So there is some risk here. The price is ripe for leveraging some value, though. TAKE YANKEES -1.5 (+100).
Over/Under (O/U)
Both starting pitchers have been undone by rates around the margins (examples: Keller .360 batting average on balls in play. Taillon .385 BABIB with runners in scoring position and .550 BABIP in high-leverage situations).
Weather conditions (cool, low humidity, inward breeze) should help both starters and whoever comes in from the pen in relief. Yankees hitters and both bullpen situations cur the other way, though. Peg just a sliver of a lean on the UNDER 9.5 (-110).
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