The Kansas City Royals (48-69) take on the Minnesota Twins (59-55) Tuesday in the 2nd of a 3-game set at Target Field. First pitch is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Twins odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Twins lead 7-4
The Royals lost a tight one in Monday’s opener of this series 4-2. They’ve now lost 3 of 4 but have won 6 of 10 and aren’t going away as potential spoilers. They are hapless on the road, though, with a 19-35 mark, which is 4th worst in the majors.
The Twins received solid pitching and timely hitting Monday to snap a 1-5 stretch for them as they’ve fallen out of 1st place in the AL Central. They are 12-18 over the last 30 games but maintain a home-field advantage behind a 32-25 record. They do their best work within the division at 28-20.
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Royals at Twins projected starters
RHP Zack Greinke vs. RHP Sonny Gray
Greinke (4-7, 4.29 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 5.2 K/9 in 98 2/3 IP.
- Has solid 3.00 ERA (30 IP, 10 ER) over last 6 starts, while picking up the K-rate, too, with a 6.9 K/9 through that stretch
- Twins touched him up for 5 ER on 6 H and 2 BB with 2 K in 4 IP of 7-3 loss at Target Field May 29
Gray (6-3, 3.33 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 83 2/3 IP.
- Hit hard in his last 7 starts with a 5.03 ERA (34 IP, 19 ER), while giving up at least 3 ER in 4 of those starts
- Last 2 seasons vs. Royals: 2-0, 2.08 ERA (13 IP, 3 ER) in 2 starts
Royals at Twins odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:13 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Royals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Twins -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-135) | Twins -1.5 (+110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)
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Royals at Twins picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 5, Royals 3
Money line
I could see the Royals stealing this one, but Greinke’s road numbers are terrible with a 7.16 ERA (44 IP, 35 ER) and an 0-5 record in 9 starts. As such, I like the TWINS FIRST 5 INNINGS (-127) in the 3-way option, which includes a tie.
If you’re looking for a player prop bet, Twins 3B Gio Urshela is 5-for-10 (.500) with a homer and double against Greinke. URSHELA OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES (+120) has some value.
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Run line/Against the spread
I’m picking the Twins to win by 2 runs, but I need more than +105 to put my money where my fingertips are. The Twins only have 4 wins in 10 games, and 3 of them were by 2+ runs. Greinke has allowed 16 hits over 11 IP in his last 2 starts.
We’re getting plus-money for the Twins to get 6 hits in the first 5. So, let’s take OVER 5.5 TWINS TOTAL HITS FIRST 5 INNINGS (+107).
Over/Under
It’s 85 degrees with a 7-mph wind blowing toward the left-field foul pole. Greinke struggles on the road, and Gray’s numbers are actually worse at home.
The Over is 5-0 in Greinke’s last 5 road starts against a team with a winning record. The Over is 6-0 in Gray’s last 6 on grass.
The Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these teams. LEAN OVER 7.5 (-130).
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