The Kansas City Royals (16-19) and Detroit Tigers (12-24) close out a three-game series Thursday at 1:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Royals vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.
LHP Daniel Lynch is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. He is 0-1 with an 18.56 ERA, 3.00 WHIP, 5.1 K/9 and 8.4 BB/9 in 5 1/3 IP over 2 starts.
Lynch is a highly-regarded 24-year-old prospect making his third career start. He didn’t make it out of the first frame last time out, Saturday against the Chicago White Sox.
RHP Spencer Turnbull is the projected starter for the Tigers. In 4 starts this season, he is 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 through 19 IP.
The Tigers righty logged a productive turn against these Royals April 26 (6 IP, 3 ER, 0 BB, 5K), but he has been undone a bit in two road starts (at the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox) since. Turnbull owns a sub-3.00 ERA over his last 7 home starts.
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Royals at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:20 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Tigers -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals -1.5 (+150) | Tigers +1.5 (-190)
- Over/Under: 9 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Prediction
Tigers 5, Royals 4
Money line (ML)
The Royals have been a solid fade candidate this month after being too far out over their skis with a 15-9 start in April. They’ve lost 10 games in a row and are averaging just 3.0 runs per game on a .639 team OPS over the slide.
Detroit doesn’t figure to be a profitable option in many instances, but the right lean of the Tigers lineup (93% of plate appearances vs. left-handed pitchers) won’t do the rookie Lynch any favors.
The once-slumbering Tigers offense has come alive in the team’s last three series with a .794 OPS. Turnbull is not an enticing part of this play. Frankly, neither is a terrible Detroit bullpen, but it’s a bullpen better than the 6.62 ERA it carries into Thursday. It isn’t too far out of step with a bottom-third Royals relief corps.
Add in the possibility that everything is happening just way too fast for Lynch, and consider a partial-unit play on DETROIT (-115).
(Starting pitchers play enough into the betting equation to make a third-time starter a lessened-action play in just about any scenario.)
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
PASS on the run line with its increased juice.
Over/Under (O/U)
Turnbull and the key relievers on both sides have been seen once or twice over. Both lineups figure as being a tad underrated by their current run-scoring and OPS averages.
Throw in two bottom-10 bullpens and a 65-degree day game in the Motor City, and follow some bigger-money plays on the OVER 9 (-110).
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