The Kansas City Royals (45-60) and Chicago White Sox (63-44) play the middle game of a three-game series Wednesday at 8:10 p.m. ET at Guaranteed Rate Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Royals vs. White Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Carlos Hernandez is the projected starting pitcher for the Royals. Over three starts and 12 relief appearances, he is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 11.0 K/9 and 5.8 BB/9 through 34 1/3 IP.
- Coming off 6 scoreless innings against these same White Sox Thursday. Wednesday’s turn in Chicago will mark his fourth straight appearance as a starter.
- Has logged only 11 career innings on the road with a 6.55 ERA and 1.91 WHIP.
RHP Lucas Giolito is the projected starter for the White Sox. He is 8-7 with a 3.67 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 10.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 through 125 IP spanning 21 starts.
- Current Royals batters own an aggregate .648 OPS against him. Pitched against K.C. July 28 and allowed 1 ER over 6 IP. Through three starts against the Royals this season (17 IP), he has registered a 3.71 ERA.
- Owns a 3.14 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home in 2021.
Royals at White Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Royals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | White Sox -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Royals +1.5 (-105) | White Sox -1.5 (-120)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)
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Prediction
White Sox 4, Royals 3
Money line (ML)
The pale Hose endured a 2-6 stretch from July 21-29, but the AL Central leaders look to have bounced back to form in recent games. Chicago took Tuesday’s series opener 7-1 and is 3-1 over its last 4 games. In the bigger picture, even with the late-July slide, the White Sox are 19-12 over their last 31 contests.
Kansas City’s bats have gone silent in a losing skid stretched to four games with Tuesday’s defeat. Over the quartet of losses, K.C. has scored just 1.5 runs per game on an anemic .452 OPS.
So, add in the pitching matchup for Wednesday, and Chicago is a clear favorite. But are the White Sox a prohibitive favorite from a betting standpoint?
No, they aren’t. Big favorites in MLB often get the public tuned into the other side, so much so there can often be value in a play at -250 or -300. The same thing happens in thoroughbred racing and a 3-to-5 favorite can take on value while longshots get over-bet.
Giolito is for real and is just now seeing his season numbers normalize after some high home run/fly-ball rates in the first half. He has good numbers against the Royals, a club that is much weaker against right-handed pitching.
Add in a Chicago offense, which owns an .835 OPS with 14 HR over its last seven home games, and a top-notch (but undervalued and now trade-bolstered) bullpen.
TAKE CHICAGO (-250).
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
K.C. plays in a lot of 1-run games. The price on Chicago is decent for more risk-averse players on pricing but the run-and-a-half adds risk, too. PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
The White Sox and their home yard tend to be over-bet on the high side. The Under is 30-23-3 in Chicago’s home games.
With the pitching in this one, and a low-humidity/inward breeze weather forecast, BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-102).
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