Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Kansas City Royals at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Boston Red Sox (51-41) welcome the Kansas City Royals (51-43) to Fenway Park Friday to kick off a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Red Sox won 5-2 last year

The Red Sox beat the Oakland A’s 7-0 Thursday, closing as -235 favorites. They won 2 of 3 games in that series and 2 of 3 in the series prior against the New York Yankees. Boston has been surging as of late, winning 8 of its last 10. However, it has struggled immensely at home and is just 22-24 at Fenway. The Red Sox are 43-39 against the spread (ATS) on the season.

The Royals beat the St. Louis Cardinals 8-5 and 6-4 Wednesday, winning both games in the doubleheader; they closed as underdogs in both. Kansas City has won 3 straight, covering in each. However, it is just 3-3 over its last 6. The Royals are 52-42 ATS on the season and 20-25 straight up on the road.

Royals at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Cole Ragans vs. TBD

Ragans (5-6, 3.28 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 109 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 4-2 road loss to Colorado Rockies Friday
  • 2024 away splits: 1-3, 3.04 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 4 HR, 9.5 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 1.35 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 11 K in 1 start, a 6-2 road loss Aug. 7, 2023

The Red Sox had not yet announced a starter, but manager Alex Cora reportedly confirmed RHP Cooper Criswell (3-3, 4.15 ERA) is in play to make his 12th start and 13th apperance. The rookie has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 52 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 8-4 home victory vs. Yankees June 15
  • 2024 home stats: 2-1, 3.41 ERA (29 IP, 11 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 7 appearances (6 starts)
  • Career vs. Royals: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (4 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 relief appearance of 4-2 road win July 15, 2023, with Tampa Bay Rays

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Royals at Red Sox odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:38 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Royals -116 (bet $116 to win $100) | Red Sox -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Royals -1.5 (+126) | Red Sox +1.5 (-152)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Royals at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Royals 5, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

BET ROYALS (-116).

The Royals haven’t consistently won with Ragans on the mound, but he has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 9 of his last 10 starts. That type of consistency will eventually produce wins. Kansas City is also surging, while the Red Sox are struggling at home. K.C. has won 3 straight, each by 2 or more runs.

Boston has lost 4 of its last 7 at home with every loss coming by 3 or more runs. Given Ragans’ success on the mound and Boston’s issues at home, back ROYALS (-116).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Red Sox are too expensive as run-line underdogs, while the Royals are too risky as run-line favorites. The value is on the moneyline.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 9 (-105).

The Red Sox have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 games, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 2 of those while allowing 0 runs in 2 as well. Boston is 1-3 in its last 4 home games.

The Royals are 4-5 O/U in their last 9 games and 1-4 O/U in Ragans’ last 5 starts as well. Put the trends together, and back UNDER 9 (-105).

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