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The Boston Red Sox (51-41) welcome the Kansas City Royals (51-43) to Fenway Park Friday to kick off a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Red Sox won 5-2 last year
The Red Sox beat the Oakland A’s 7-0 Thursday, closing as -235 favorites. They won 2 of 3 games in that series and 2 of 3 in the series prior against the New York Yankees. Boston has been surging as of late, winning 8 of its last 10. However, it has struggled immensely at home and is just 22-24 at Fenway. The Red Sox are 43-39 against the spread (ATS) on the season.
The Royals beat the St. Louis Cardinals 8-5 and 6-4 Wednesday, winning both games in the doubleheader; they closed as underdogs in both. Kansas City has won 3 straight, covering in each. However, it is just 3-3 over its last 6. The Royals are 52-42 ATS on the season and 20-25 straight up on the road.
Royals at Red Sox projected starters
LHP Cole Ragans vs. TBD
Ragans (5-6, 3.28 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 109 2/3 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 4-2 road loss to Colorado Rockies Friday
- 2024 away splits: 1-3, 3.04 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 17 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 4 HR, 9.5 K/9 in 8 starts
- Career vs. Red Sox: 0-0, 1.35 ERA (6 2/3 IP, 1 ER), 4 H, 0 HR, 1 BB, 11 K in 1 start, a 6-2 road loss Aug. 7, 2023
The Red Sox had not yet announced a starter, but manager Alex Cora reportedly confirmed RHP Cooper Criswell (3-3, 4.15 ERA) is in play to make his 12th start and 13th apperance. The rookie has a 1.21 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 52 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 8-4 home victory vs. Yankees June 15
- 2024 home stats: 2-1, 3.41 ERA (29 IP, 11 ER), 1.14 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 7 appearances (6 starts)
- Career vs. Royals: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (4 IP, 2 ER), 5 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 1 relief appearance of 4-2 road win July 15, 2023, with Tampa Bay Rays
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Royals at Red Sox odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:38 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals -116 (bet $116 to win $100) | Red Sox -102 (bet $102 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Royals -1.5 (+126) | Red Sox +1.5 (-152)
- Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Royals at Red Sox picks and predictions
Prediction
Royals 5, Red Sox 3
Moneyline
BET ROYALS (-116).
The Royals haven’t consistently won with Ragans on the mound, but he has allowed 3 or fewer ER in 9 of his last 10 starts. That type of consistency will eventually produce wins. Kansas City is also surging, while the Red Sox are struggling at home. K.C. has won 3 straight, each by 2 or more runs.
Boston has lost 4 of its last 7 at home with every loss coming by 3 or more runs. Given Ragans’ success on the mound and Boston’s issues at home, back ROYALS (-116).
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
The Red Sox are too expensive as run-line underdogs, while the Royals are too risky as run-line favorites. The value is on the moneyline.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 9 (-105).
The Red Sox have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 games, scoring 3 or fewer runs in 2 of those while allowing 0 runs in 2 as well. Boston is 1-3 in its last 4 home games.
The Royals are 4-5 O/U in their last 9 games and 1-4 O/U in Ragans’ last 5 starts as well. Put the trends together, and back UNDER 9 (-105).
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