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The Kansas City Royals (1-2) and Baltimore Orioles (2-1) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 6:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Orioles won 5-1 last season
The Royals exploded for 11 runs in their series finale against the Minnesota Twins Sunday, after scoring just 2 total over their 1st 2 games. C Salvador Perez, RF Nelson Velazquez, CF Kyle Isbel, SS Bobby Witt Jr., and 3B Maikel Garcia all went deep for Kansas City in the 11-0 win. The Royals threw a 4-hit shutout, led by starting RHP Brady Singer and his 10 strikeouts over 7 innings.
After allowing an average of 12 runs over the 1st 2 games of the series, the Los Angeles Angels shut the Orioles down in a 4-1 victory Sunday. Baltimore could only manage 3 hits in the loss, and the only run it could muster was an RBI walk from SS Gunnar Henderson. Despite the struggles, the Orioles are averaging over 8 runs per game on the season.
Royals at Orioles projected starters
RHP Michael Wacha vs. RHP Dean Kremer
Wacha (14-4, 3.22 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.16 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 134 1/3 innings for the San Diego Padres.
- 2023 road stats: 4-1, 4.07 ERA (55 1/3 IP, 25 ER) in 10 starts
- Last start vs. Orioles: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 10-3 home victory with the Padres Aug. 15, 2023
- Career vs. Orioles: 3-1, 5.19 ERA (43 1/3 IP, 25 ER) in 10 starts
Kremer (13-5, 4.12 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start. He had a 1.31 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 172 2/3 innings.
- 2023 home stats: 8-2, 4.38 ERA (102 2/3 IP, 50 ER) in 19 starts
- Career vs. Royals: Win, 5 IP, 2 R (1 ER), 4 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 1 start, a 10-7 road victory June 12, 2022
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Royals at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 10:40 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Royals +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Orioles -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Royals +1.5 (-155) | Orioles -1.5 (+125)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Royals at Orioles picks and predictions
Prediction
Orioles 5, Royals 2
Moneyline
PASS.
The Orioles (-160) will win this game against the Royals, but I’m not going to put down over 1½ units to win 1; it’s just not a smart bet. Save your money for the spread and/or the total.
Run line/Against the spread
BET ORIOLES -1.5 (+125).
There is a stark difference in talent between these teams. While the Royals are young and maturing, they haven’t arrived like the Orioles have at this point. Baltimore has won 7 of the last 8 straight up against Kansas City, and it covered the run line in 6 games.
Wacha does have a winning record against the Orioles in his career but has an over-5 ERA. Meanwhile, Kremer was among the best pitchers in baseball last season when it came to pitching at home.
Over/Under
PASS.
I don’t see any edge to be had in this game when it comes to the total. The trends are very mixed when it comes to these teams. I’d rather focus my bet on the spread.
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