The Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) will take on the Houston Texans (1-11-1) at NRG Stadium Sunday in Week 15. Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET (CBS). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Chiefs vs. Texans odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
The Chiefs beat the Denver Broncos 34-28 in Week 14, failing to cover the 8.5-point spread. Kansas City led 27-0 in the first half but allowed a comeback while QB Patrick Mahomes uncharacteristically threw 3 INTs. The Chiefs have covered the spread only 3 times this season.
The Texans have lost 8 straight and haven’t covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 games. QBs Davis Mills and Jeff Driskel are expected to be on a rare QB rotation moving forward, and it will be Mills’ first career game against Kansas City. Driskel briefly played against K.C. as a Cincinnati Bengal in 2018 but threw only 4 passes in a blowout loss. The Chiefs and Texans haven’t played each other since 2020 when Houston was helmed by Deshaun Watson at QB.
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Chiefs at Texans odds
Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:50 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Chiefs -1000 (bet $1000 to win $100) | Texans +700 (bet $100 to win $700)
- Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs -14.5 (-107) | Texans +14.5 (-113)
- Over/Under (O/U): 49.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Chiefs at Texans key injuries
Chiefs
- DT Chris Jones (illness) questionable
- WR Kadarius Toney (hamstring) questionable
Texans
- WR Nico Collins (foot) out
- WR Brandin Cooks (calf) out
- OL Kenyon Green (ankle) out
- OL Justin McCray (hamstring) questionable
- DB Steven Nelson (foot) out
- RB Dameon Pierce (ankle) out
- DB Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring) out
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Chiefs at Texans picks and predictions
Prediction
Chiefs 34, Texans 13
Moneyline
A Super Bowl contender with the league’s top statistical QB against the worst team in the league that is missing its starting running back and top 2 receivers? Yeah, this one is a no-brainer. The Chiefs will win this game, but you shouldn’t waste your time on the +1000 moneyline that provides a miniscule payout.
AVOID the moneyline and spend your money elsewhere.
Against the spread
The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread against an AFC team this season, though they pushed as 10-point favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars. This game is the perfect opportunity for that to change. The Chiefs have their eyes on recapturing the No. 1 seed while the Texans are missing so many key pieces on an already inept offense that averages just 16.2 points per game.
Kansas City should also take advantage of Houston’s poor run defense, which allows an average of 165.8 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs have been using RB Isiah Pacheco more lately (80 carries, 394 yards rushing, 2 TDs in his last 5 games). So expect him to have a big game.
BET CHIEFS -14.5 (-107).
Over/Under
During last week’s Chiefs vs. Broncos game it had looked like the Under was the way to go until K.C. allowed Denver to jump back into the game. I don’t see that happening 2 weeks in a row for the Chiefs, especially with the Texans missing so many offensive pieces. There just won’t be many ways for Houston to score.
LEAN UNDER 49.5 (-110).
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