Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos odds, picks and predictions

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The Kansas City Chiefs (15-1) take on the Denver Broncos (9-7) Sunday in Week 18. Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High is set for 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NFL odds around the Chiefs vs. Broncos odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

The Chiefs clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs after a 29-10 victory at the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 17. QB Patrick Mahomes went 29-for-38 for 320 yards, 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Mahomes, TE Travis Kelce, RB Isiah Pacheco and RB Kareem Hunt are all among starters expected to sit out Sunday.

The Broncos have lost 2 straight after a 30-24 OT loss to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17. QB Bo Nix was 24-for-31 for 219 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. WR Marvin Mims Jr. had 8 catches for 103 yards and 2 TDs. The Broncos are in with a win (or tie). But they can also get in with a Miami Dolphins loss or tie combined with a Bengals loss or tie.

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Chiefs at Broncos odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NFL odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Chiefs +400 (bet $100 to win $400) | Broncos -550 (bet $100 to win $550)
Against the spread (ATS): Chiefs +10.5 (-110) | Broncos -10.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 40.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Chiefs at Broncos key injuries

Chiefs

LB Nick Bolton (coaching decision) doubtful
WR Mecole Hardman (knee) out
RB Kareem Hunt (coaching decision) doubtful
DT Chris Jones (calf) doubtful
DE George Karlaftis (coaching decision) doubtful
TE Travis Kelce (coaching decision) doubtful
QB Patrick Mahomes (ankle) doubtful
CB Trent McDuffie (knee) doubtful
RB Isiah Pacheco (ribs) out
S Justin Reid (coaching decision) doubtful
OT Jawaan Taylor (knee) out
LB Drue Tranquill (coaching decision) doubtful

Broncos

RB Tyler Badie (back) questionable
OT Frank Crum (illness) out

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Chiefs at Broncos picks and predictions

Prediction

Broncos 28, Chiefs 21

Moneyline

The Chiefs will have QB Carson Wentz under center, and he’s a capable backup that could win this game outright. I’m not willing to go there, though, but I will definitely side with them on the spread.

Instead, let’s go with a bangable player prop. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton needs 82 yards to reach a $500,000 incentive in his contract. Coach Sean Payton has a history of feeding his players to hit these milestones.

Take COURTLAND SUTTON OVER 78.5 RECEIVING YARDS (-145).

Against the spread

Take the CHIEFS +10.5 (-110). The Broncos need this game, but Wentz needs this game for a shot at a bridge QB job next season. TE Noah Gray and WR DeAndre Hopkins should see the field and provide enough cushion for the cover.

Over/Under

It’s slated to be cloudy 33 degrees Sunday in Denver, which should give relatively normal playing conditions for January. The Broncos are 8-2 O/U in their last 10. Kansas City’s numbers really don’t matter with its lineup shuffle.

Either way, I like the OVER 40 (-110).

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