In a 12-round undisputed junior welterweight title fight, Josh Taylor faces Teofimo Lopez Jr. Saturday in the Hulu Theatre at Madison Square Garden. The main fight card is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+), with the main event scheduled for approximately 10 p.m. ET (ESPN/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Taylor vs. Lopez odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.
Taylor was once the undisputed champ at 140 pounds, but he gave up his 3 belts for a rematch shot at rival Jack Catterall. He topped Catterall by split decision at The SSE Hydro in Glasgow in his native Scotland. It was considered a controversial decision, and he could have quieted critics with the rematch. It never materialized, and now he’ll get Lopez instead.
Lopez stopped Vasiliy Lomachenko in Oct. 2020 to become the unified lightweight champion. However, he lost his belts to George Kambosos Jr. in a split-decision setback, and he didn’t look good or prepared in that fight.
Since the loss in Nov. 2021 to Kambosos, Lopez has dropped a pair of tomato cans, Pedro Campa and Sandro Martin, with the latter fight also at MSG.
Taylor vs. Lopez Jr. odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (2-way line): Taylor -225 (bet $225 to win $100) | Lopez +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
- Over/Under: 11 rounds (Over -200 | Under +150)
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -150 | No +110)
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Taylor vs. Lopez Jr. picks and predictions
Records: Taylor (19-0-0, 13 KOs) | Lopez Jr. (18-1-0, 13 KOs)
Fight result (2-way line or moneyline)
Taylor (-200) enters this fight as the hungrier fighter. He relinquished his 3 belts for a shot at Catterall, and he was hosed. Taylor will enter this fight with a chip on his shoulder.
As far as Lopez Jr. (+160) is concerned, there isn’t a lot of worry about his skills. He is a puncher, and still just 25 years old. He gives up an inch of reach to Taylor, but that’s not the concern, either. The book on Lopez is that there is a lot of negative noise, both inside of his own head, as well as from his camp. The belief is that the mental side negates the physical side, and is a big reason he was done in by Kambosos, when he looked ill-prepared.
I want to take a chance on Lopez, fighting in 1 of the 5 boroughs, near his birthplace of Brooklyn. But I don’t like the negativity surrounding Lopez, and it sounds like he is believing a lot of his own hype. Taylor is the guy who will get it done, however, risking more than 2 times your return isn’t attractive.
PASS.
Over/Under (O/U)
I like TAYLOR BY UNANIMOUS DECISION (+260) for a much better value, multiplying your initial wager by more than 2 1/2 times.
If you don’t want to declare a winner, but simply want a little action, taking YES (-150): FIGHT TO GO THE DISTANCE is not priced out of line, either.
If you want insurance in the event of a late knockout, going 11 Rounds or More (-200) is just a little too expensive, and really, a single round is not great insurance or wiggle room.
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