Josh Pate predicts Texas’ ceiling, floor and most likely record

Josh Pate says Texas’ most likely record is 11-1.

Burnt orange fever has reached Nashville. Another respected analyst has the Texas Longhorns winning the Big 12.

Josh Pate of the Late Kick podcast continued his series on setting ceilings and floors for college football teams. His predictions for Texas might surprise you. Pate set the same ceiling and floor that I did earlier this week. He has a 12-0 ceiling for the Longhorns with a 7-5 floor for the team. Pate shared his thoughts on why Texas should be considered as dangerous.

“Are you buying into Texas hype? Well, look. Apparently I am. But I don’t think it’s hype, I think there’s substance behind it. … Take the (Texas) logo away. Just look at the football players, and put Alabama jerseys on ’em or put Michigan jersey’s on ’em. You wouldn’t think this team’s about to do some big things or you wouldn’t think that team has potential? If you put Southern Cal uniforms on this Texas team every one of you would have them in the playoff.”

The college football analyst cites Texas’ defense and offensive line as substantive pieces that could lead it to a championship. Both of those components have been lacking on the Forty Acres for much of the last decade. But his high ceiling isn’t the biggest takeaway from his thoughts on Texas.

More surprising than the high ceiling is Pate’s most likely record prediction for the team. He believes the Longhorns’ most likely finish is an 11-1 season, which he indicated would be his prediction for the team. That would likely result in a College Football Playoff berth for the team.

I am not as high on the Longhorns as Pate, but the overwhelming talent advantage makes a 10-2 finish highly possible if not likely on the year. If Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian masters some of the nuances of the head coaching position, an 11-win season is certainly on the table.