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The New York Jets are about to take their biggest stage of the season. They visit Lambeau Field to take on the Green Bay Packers and they’ll be featured as FOX’s Game of the Week as their No. 1 broadcast crew of Kevin Burkhardt and Greg Olsen will be on the call. Can the Jets pull off the upset? Let’s touch on the game a little bit and then make a prediction.
Without a doubt, the Jets know they have to find a way to stop Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. While the offense as a whole isn’t as scary as it has been in years past with Davante Adams now in Las Vegas, Rodgers is still behind center for Green Bay, making the offense always a challenge. This is where the sensational cornerback duo of D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner need to come up with another strong performance, maybe their best of the season.
They’ll be tasked with taking on Green Bay’s trio of Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb and Romeo Doubs. Christian Watson remains out with a hamstring injury. The combo of Reed and Gardner is good enough to hold the trio in check, meaning the Packers may need to get a guy like Robert Tonyan involved again and make the middle of the Jets defense make plays to get off the field and allow their offense to work.
That offense can have success against the Packers defense. Especially the run game. Fresh off totaling 197 yards last week in a 40-17 win over the Miami Dolphins, Breece Hall may be salivating to take on a Packers run defense that ranks 30th in DVOA. Only the Lions and Browns rank worse. Even with leaving the game briefly due to injury, Giants running back Saquon Barkley still ran for 70 yards on just 13 carries (5.4 yards per carry) with a touchdown.
The Jets offensive line can open up holes for Hall and Michael Carter and with Duane Brown and Alijah Vera-Tucker on the outside, have a chance to allow quarterback Zach Wilson to continue making plays and extend the success he has built up over the last five quarters. Especially if Packers defensive end Rashan Gary is unable to play.
Gary was added to Green Bay’s injury report Thursday with a toe injury and was limited Thursday and Friday. Head coach Matt LaFleur expressed some concern about the availability Sunday of Gary, who leads the Packers with five sacks and 19 pressures this season.
“It’s the next man up and the standard doesn’t change, but let’s face it, the guy is pretty impactful I’d say when he’s out on the grass,” said LaFleur this week. “Certainly he’s a guy that we definitely want in there. When he’s not in there I think you can feel the effects of that.”
If Gary can’t go, expect to see more of 2020 7th-round pick Jonathan Garvin and rookie 5th-round pick Kingsley Enagbare in his place. His loss would be a huge hit for the Packers and tilt the advantage arrow more in the Jets’ favor.
On the flip side of the line, the Packers still boast one of the top offensive lines in the NFL and that includes guard Jon Runyan Jr. His matchup against Jets star defensive lineman Quinnen Williams, as noted by Brandon Carwile of Packers Wire, figures to be quite a one-on-one battle that could help decide this game.
Runyan hasn’t allowed a pressure in 167 pass-blocking snaps in 2022. No other guard has done that with at least 33 reps in pass protection. Runyan has been dominant in his third season, but he is about to face his toughest matchup of the season. Williams has already logged three sacks and 17 pressures, which is tied for 7th among defensive linemen, according to Pro Football Focus. Most of Williams’ production has come against left guards, which means Runyan will have his hands full on Sunday.
If Williams can continue his incredible start to the season, the Jets can get the ball more into the hands of Wilson and company, who can get the ball into the hands of his playmakers, namely Corey Davis, Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore. Their matchups with Packers cornerbacks Jaire Alexander and Rasul Douglas should be interesting ones. The Packers have gotten some flak over the seemingly passive style of defense from defensive coordinator Joe Barry, especially with the corners. The Jets’ wide receivers aren’t a group to be passive against, because they will make you pay.
But of course, it all comes back to Aaron Rodgers, who will keep the Packers in just about every game he plays. Could the Jets finally be heading in that direction with Zach Wilson? A strong performance Sunday will go a long way in making that a reality.
All in all, this should be a very interesting game and the spread feels a bit large. The Packers are angry after a disappointing performance in London where the only points they scored in the second half of their 27-22 loss came via an intentional safety from the Giants. However, the Jets can easily keep this game within the touchdown spread they are getting. In fact…
…they will do more than just keep this close.
Prediction: Jets 31, Packers 27