The 2020 NBA playoffs at the league’s “bubble” complex near Orlando won’t have fans, so the usual perk of home-court advantage for higher seeds won’t be applicable to this year’s postseason.
But the final regular-season records, which will be set after eight “seeding” games in Florida, will still be quite meaningful. That’s because those records will set the brackets for the upcoming playoffs.
The Houston Rockets (40-24) are currently tied for the West’s No. 5 spot and can mathematically finish anywhere between No. 2 and No. 7 in the tightly packed standings. While their final placement will determine their first-round opponent, the bigger priority could be subsequent rounds.
Among expected contenders, one big consideration is which Los Angeles team that Houston prefers to have on its side of the West bracket and potentially face in the second round, should they advance.
On paper, the No. 1 Lakers (49-14) have been superior to the No. 2 Clippers (44-20) this season. But while the sample is small, it’s worth noting that the small-ball Rockets had more success against the former.
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On Feb. 6, the Rockets beat LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the rest of the Lakers by double digits at Staples Center in a game where Russell Westbrook scored 41 points. Then, about one month later on March 5, the Rockets were crushed by Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers in Houston.
The sample is limited. But based on what we know now, the Rockets had an easier time matching up with the larger Lakers and spacing the floor against their traditional big men. By contrast, the collective length and defensive versatility of the Clippers caused problems in March.
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In a Monday appearance on ESPN, former NBA player and current analyst Jay Williams seemed to agree with that assessment. He said:
If I’m Houston, I am trying to mirror and be in that bracket with the Lakers. I’m trying to be in that 4-5 range so I can be partnered with them, because I think that is the matchup they want to see in the Western Conference semifinals.
I don’t think they want to see the Clippers until the Finals because of their wings and the way they can match up. But a bigger Lakers team, where you can involve them in a ton of PnR (pick and roll), and James Harden and Russell Westbrook get hot? That could be the matchup that you’re looking for.
.@KendrickPerkins is predicting the Houston Rockets will end up getting the 3-seed 👀 pic.twitter.com/9DmwfUikaS
— Get Up (@GetUpESPN) June 29, 2020
The Lakers will also be without veteran defensive ace Avery Bradley as an option to defend Harden and Westbrook. Bradley said last week that he is opting out of the NBA’s restart, citing family concerns.
The Rockets and Lakers, who have split their two meetings so far this season, will play once more in the regular season on August 6. That could give Houston one more chance to see how that matchup plays out before the playoffs, and whether the trends from the February game continue.
Beyond Xs and Os, there is another potential factor. The Lakers are expected to be heavy first-round favorites against whatever team emerges as the No. 8 seed, whereas the Clippers are currently slotted to have a real test versus superstar Luka Doncic and No. 7 Dallas. Perhaps the greater potential of an early upset is a variable worth considering.
With as closely bunched as the West standings are, Houston might not have the option to unilaterally “pick” its ideal bracket. But the possibility is worth monitoring as the regular season nears its conclusion.
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