The New Orleans Saints are working to finalize a one-year contract with free agent quarterback Jameis Winston, though the deal is not signed just yet. That shouldn’t happen until after Monday’s cutoff for qualifying compensatory draft picks in 2021; signing Winston before it would jeopardize the third- and sixth-round selections the Saints are projected to receive, which they’ve already used in making trades in the 2020 draft.
But let’s not lose sight of what the Saints signing the former first-overall draft pick might mean. Winston is reportedly open to signing a one-year deal with the team, which NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport noted would be “less lucrative” than what he might earn as a starter in another spot. The opportunity to be tutored by Saints coach Sean Payton and his staff and mentored by Drew Brees seems to appeal to Winston, who has had an up-and-down career in Tampa Bay.
His results have almost looked like what Brett Favre’s stats might have been had the Atlanta Falcons not traded him to the Green Bay Packers early in his career, only stretched out over five years instead of just two games (Favre dropped back to pass five times for the Falcons, completing no passes, and threw two interceptions while taking a sack).
In 72 games for the Buccaneers, Winston completed 61.3% of his passes while averaging 274 yards per game. The trouble comes with his negative plays, having thrown 121 touchdown passes against 88 interceptions — 30 of them coming last year in Bruce Arians’ high-risk, high-volume offense. He also took 169 sacks, 47 of them last year. Those interceptions and sacks totals, and Winston’s 626 pass attempts, were all career-highs and partly reflect the situation he was put into.
That won’t happen in New Orleans. The Saints have a better offensive line, a more balanced offense, and a depth chart that won’t put Winston in before he’s ready, if at all. He’ll be the backup for Drew Brees — if he does end up signing, which hasn’t happened yet — while Taysom Hill continues starring on special teams and playing every position but quarterback on offense, with rookie prospect Tommy Stevens in place as Hill’s own understudy. It would take a nightmare situation like Brees injuring his throwing hand again for Saints fans to get an extended look at Winston in black and gold.
So what’s a best-case scenario look like? Ideally, Winston will only get a meaningless start at the end of the year once the Saints have secured the first seed in the NFC, and the bye week that comes with it. That will allow him to show how he’s grown and developed after a year of practicing with Saints coaches. He goes out, flashes all his positive qualities while obscuring the negatives, and signs a rich free agent contract next spring to earn the Saints another highly-valued comp pick. Every wins, including the Saints in Super Bowl LV.
And the worst-case scenario for Winston: he either gets forced into the lineup and is just as much a high-variance goofball as we saw in Tampa Bay and flops, killing the Saints’ playoff chances, or he gets involved in another legal dispute and the Saints cut him with little financial penalty. That’s the upside to signing free agents to one-year contracts far beneath a starter’s salary.
Either way, this is a smart move by both sides. Winston gets an opportunity to learn from some of the best to ever do it in the NFL, and the Saints get a stronger insurance policy for maybe the most critical season in franchise history. And that’s something to celebrate.
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