In a 10-round catchweight bout Saturday, Jake Paul and Nate Diaz meet at American Airlines Arena in Dallas. The prelims begin at 6:15 p.m. ET, with the main event scheduled for 8 p.m. ET. The ring walks for Paul-Diaz are set for approximately 11:15 p.m. ET (DAZN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Paul vs. Diaz odds, and make our expert boxing picks and predictions.
Records: Paul (6-1-0, 4 KOs) | Diaz (0-0-0, boxing debut)
Paul heads to the ring looking to bounce back after losing by split-decision in Saudi Arabia against Tommy Fury in late February. The social media influencer headed into his boxing career with gimmick fights against Ali Eson Gib and former NBA player Nate Robinson. They were entertaining, but overall, Paul boxing seemed like a joke.
That all changed when he stopped former UFC fighter Ben Askren in April 2021 in Atlanta, winning by way of TKO. Four months later, he defeated another former UFC fighter in Tyron Woodley with a split-decision victory in Cleveland, Paul’s hometown. He then won a rematch in December 2021, knocking out Woodley in the 6th round in Tampa.
Paul also stopped Anderson Silva via unanimous decision in Glendale, Ariz., in October 2022 before losing to Fury in a close fight.
Diaz, the former UFC champion, makes his boxing debut. The 38-year-old has mostly fought at 155 pounds in his career, but this will be a catchweight bout at 185 pounds. Both Diaz and Paul have a reach of 76 inches.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]
[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]
Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:35 a.m. ET.
- Fight result (3-way line): Paul -400 (bet $400 to win $100) | Diaz +333 (bet $100 to win $333) | Draw +1400 (bet $100 to win $1,400)
- How many rounds: 8 or more -140 | Less than 8 +100
- Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +150 | No -200)
Visit Boxing Junkie for more fight news and analysis.
Jake Paul vs. Nate Diaz picks and predictions
Fight result (or moneyline)
Paul (-400) will cost 4 times the potential return. That’s just too expensive for not enough reward.
I expect Paul to get the job done as the most special thing about Diaz (+333) in his UFC career was his ability to wrestle and submit opponents. In fact, he was 14-1 via that method of victory in 35 pro bouts, but that’s not part of boxing. He has been knocked out twice, however, and Paul packs a devastating punch.
I’d look to the “round group betting 1” instead for better value. PAUL IN ROUNDS 6-10 (+188) is a much better play for a chance to nearly double up.
In addition, I’d take a chance on OVER 1.5 (+138) OFFICIAL RECORDED KNOCKDOWNS. Paul could catch Diaz early, but it won’t be a fight ender. Paul will likely win behind a knockout, but it won’t be on the 1st knockdown — expect more than one knockdown in this match.
Over/Under (O/U)
No (-200): Fight to go full 10 rounds is just too expensive. Instead, focus on the round group betting mentioned above.
Consider betting LESS THAN 9 ROUNDS (-140), which is a much better value, but I like the plus-money way more.
Watch this card with ESPN+ by signing up here.
[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]
For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and us on Facebook.
[lawrence-newsletter]
[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=2676]