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The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) travel to Lucas Oil Stadium to face a division rival in the Indianapolis Colts (5-4) at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Week 11 preview, betting trends and notes
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- Jacksonville is 7-1-1 against the spread in its last nine games following a bye.
- The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games against teams with losing records.
- Jacksonville is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight games against Indianapolis.
- The Colts are 5-1 on the moneyline in their last six meetings with the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium.
- Indianapolis is 3-2 hitting the over at home this season, while Jacksonville is 2-1-1 hitting the over on the road.
- The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last five game against AFC South opponents.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Key injuries
The Colts got good news with QB Jacoby Brissett (knee) back to practice this week and expected to start Sunday, plus WR Devin Funchess was taken off injured reserve this week. But the club remains without WRs T.Y. Hilton (calf) and Parris Campbell (hand), as well as TE Jack Doyle (shoulder). None of them have practiced this week. Jacksonville didn’t have anyone out of Wednesday’s practice and have QB Nick Foles (clavicle) back to start Sunday.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: Odds, betting lines and prediction
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:45 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Indianapolis 23, Jacksonville 20
Moneyline (?)
This is a difficult moneyline if you think the Colts are going to win, which we are leaning toward. The Colts are -154, while the Jaguars are at +125. We believe this is going to be a game that comes down to the wire that either team could win because Foles will be rusty and Brissett isn’t 100 percent.
New to sports betting? A $10 wager on the Colts to win would return a profit of $6.50.
Against the Spread (?)
This is the flip side of the coin. If you agree with us that the Colts are going to win 23-20, you don’t take them here, you take them on the moneyline. With the spread at 3.5, the hook could be huge. Neither team is likely to blow the other out, and Indy getting +110 while the Jags are at -134 shows the lack of confidence in Indy’s ability to cover. Take JACKSONVILLE +3.5 (-134).
Over/Under (?)
Typically O/U numbers are relatively close on both sides, but not here. At 44.5, the over +105 and the under -125. If the game plays out as many believe it will — two rusty QBs coming back from missing time and offenses built around running the ball on first and second downs — the over gives you the better payoff. But the UNDER is the bet to make.
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