The Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 10 coming off another tough loss on the road to the Philadelphia Eagles and will look to pull off an upset home victory against the 6-2 Minnesota Vikings.
Like last week, the Jaguars will be without some key players, including franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has been nursing a left shoulder injury this week. Losing Lawrence will be a hard blow for a team that has been relatively competitive largely because of his play in recent weeks.
However, there is a path to success that Jacksonville can follow. The Vikings do not have many weaknesses, but there are some areas the Jaguars can take advantage of to pave the road to an upset.
Jaguars Wire breaks down the key matchups that could be vital in ensuring win No. 3 for the Jaguars against the Vikings.
Jacksonville’s run game vs. Minnesota’s run defense
The Vikings own the NFL’s No. 2 rushing defense this season in yards allowed and have allowed the fewest rushing expected points added (EPA) this season. The Jaguars have found success on the ground this season and with Lawrence out, they will have to lean on their new star tailback Tank Bigsby.
A productive day from Bigbsy might be Jacksonville’s biggest key to victory this weekend. He is a tough runner to bring down, forcing a missed tackle on nearly 38 percent of his rushes, according to Next Gen Stats.
That’s good enough for the third-highest rate in football. Minnesota has struggled to tackle in space this season at the fifth-highest rate.
Bigsby has the skill set to handle a hefty workload on a moment’s notice. His downhill rushing ability and shiftiness in space make him a handful to bring down.
To add pressure for Minnesota, Bigsby can be a home run-hitting running back with his second-level explosiveness and quickness in the open field. It won’t be an easy go-around but this is strength vs. strength in this weekend’s matchup.
Jacksonville DE Josh Hines-Allen vs. Minnesota LT Cam Robinson
This matchup could be personal for both players. It was only a few weeks ago that Robinson was manning Lawrence’s blindside.
But after Vikings star left tackle Christian Darrisaw went down with a season-ending injury, they acquired Robinson and a conditional 2026 seventh-round draft choice in exchange for a conditional 2026 fifth-round pick.
The former Jaguar had an up-and-down career in North Florida. Robinson was playing steady football in pass protection with just a 7.1 percent pressure rate before he was traded. But he struggled against Indianapolis in his Vikings debut and is now tasked with slowing down Josh Hines-Allen for the first time as an opponent.
Jacksonville’s cornerstone pass rusher is tied with teammate Travon Walker for the most pressures on the team with 34. He’s as good as they come coming off the edge and is likely to spend most of his snaps lining up at right defensive end for his one-on-one matchup with Robinson.
Hines-Allen versus Robinson in the trenches is a key individual matchup that fans should have a keen eye on, one that could be a deciding factor in this weekend’s game.
Jacksonville QB Mac Jones vs. Minnesota pass defense
Losing a talent like Lawrence for just one or any number of games is a blow for the Jaguars. He’s the franchise quarterback and has played sound football for most of the season.
But now, it’s time for former Pro Bowler and once-surmised New England franchise signal-caller Mac Jones to make his starting debut with his hometown team.
Jones never proved to be the prolific quarterback from the incredible 2020 Alabama national championship roster in the NFL. More of a game-manager, a heavy dose of the run game and play-action should allow Jones to be fairly smooth sailing if things go according to plan.
However, the Jaguars might miss the vertical element that has been a staple of their offense with Jones under-center this weekend.
Jones will face a defense that is second in the NFL in blitz rate and has used split-safety coverage the most of any team this season. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has them playing some sound football and will pose a challenge for Jones this weekend.
Yet, there is a path where Jones performs well enough to put Jacksonville in a spot to pull off the upset. If he protects the ball and finds answers against pressure while giving receivers like Brian Thomas Jr. and Parker Washington chances for run-after-catch plays, the Jaguars will be one step closer to victory.