One of the top headlines to immerge from the Cowboys’ Week 16 loss in Miami is how CeeDee Lamb disappeared from the gameplan for literally half of the game. With zero targets in the second and third quarters, Lamb was absent for an entire half. It’s no coincidence the Cowboys struggled during those periods of time.
It seems an odd thing to do to a player who logged 93 yards alone in the first quarter, but according to coach Mike McCarthy it was something unplanned that simply followed the natural “ebb and flow of the game.”
It’s a fair answer considering a live NFL game is a series of actions and reactions, and often times the best read isn’t to the best player. The circumstances of the drives also matter.
Cowboys in Week 16:
Quarters 1, 4: 49 offensive plays for 11.073 EPA
Quarters 2, 3: 31 offensive plays for -1.340 EPA— Reid D Hanson (@ReidDHanson) December 27, 2023
In quarters one and four, the Cowboys had 49 plays on offense. In quarters two and three they had only 31 plays on offense. Was Lambs absence a byproduct of limited plays or are the limited plays a byproduct of not using Lamb? Can we say, both?
But is the Cowboys offense really dead in the water when it’s not funneling through No. 88? Is it really Lamb or bust in Dallas like many have suggested this week?
Looking at the numbers from last week the Cowboys had a number of productive players in the passing game. Volume wise, no one approaches Lamb’s 9.5 expected points added on the day. But on a per play basis, many players met, or even exceeded, Lamb’s 0.95 EPA/play.
WR2 Brandin Cooks averaged 1.77 EPA/play. Every ball he caught successfully increased the Cowboys scoring probabilities (measured in success rate) making him the most efficient target on the field. Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin averaged 1.73 EPA/play and 1.66 EPA/play, respectively. They’re not much more than role players, but they’re highly effective role players at least. Even Jake Ferguson, who saw a higher volume than the others, managed a positive EPA/play of 0.30.
While Michael Gallup, Peyton Hendershot, Rico Dowdle, Tony Pollard, and Luke Schoonmaker all offered negative returns on the day, the success of the others shows the Cowboys have plenty of weapons on offense other than Lamb.
Does this excuse Lambs lack of targets through half the game?
Certainly not. But it shows the Cowboys No. 2 ranked passing attack this isn’t completely hapless without him. The Cowboys’ passing attack is really, really good and a big reason why is because of Lamb. But he’s not the only reason.
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