When the Indianapolis Colts made quarterback Anthony Richardson the fourth pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, expectations were off the charts that, with Richardson’s skill set, he could almost immediately be Version 2.0 of Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson or former NFL star Cam Newton. Blessed with a rare combination of elite foot speed and arm strength, it was clear that Richardson was going to be the starter on Day 1 and the atmosphere was going to change for the Colts.
Indianapolis had witnessed a quarterback turnstile since the abrupt retirement of franchise cornerstone Andrew Luck after the 2018 season. After five years of change, the belief was the ugly ride was coming to a stop with the arrival of Richardson.
Unfortunately, his rookie season lasted just two full games and parts of two others. Richardson was knocked out of his first two divisional tilts – Week 2 against the Houston and Week 4 vs. Tennessee, when he sustained a season-ending shoulder injury that required surgery, putting his dynamic rookie campaign on hold.
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What Richardson showed in 162 minutes was stunningly good. In less than 10 quarters of game time, he threw for 577 yards and three touchdowns and rushed 25 times for 136 yards and four touchdowns. When he was on the field, the rookie was electric as both a runner and passer. But the obvious concern is his durability.
After a few years of being one of the weaker offensive divisions in football and run-oriented in a passing league, the AFC South has suddenly transformed into a division that has seen significant offensive octane added across the board. The days of the 17-13 bloodbaths are over, and the Colts have joined the party with an offense that can compete with anyone, largely thanks to a dynamic Richardson at the wheel.
The gigantic question with Richardson as a fantasy investment is will he be able to stay healthy in the NFL and not be a flash in the pan with immense talent?
Fantasy football outlook
There may be no bigger risk/reward pick in fantasy drafts this summer than Richardson. He currently as an ADP of QB5, behind only Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Jackson and Patrick Mahomes — in the mix with guys like C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott.
Those other guys all have a track record of success to warrant being drafted that high. Richardson has finished only two career games, meaning he’s effectively still a rookie. Anyone who saw his performances in 2023’s cameo season can attest that Richardson is an explosive — perhaps generational — talent, but to take a quarterback this high with a blazing red flag from his rookie season is a bold move as high as his current ADP would indicate.
Whoever ends up with Richardson will likely be forced to jump on another quarterback higher than others who took a quarterback early to provided insurance. In a 12-team league, that will likely require grabbing a second QB as soon as everyone has one, which may be too steep a price for a lot of fantasy managers to pay, despite his incredibly high ceiling.