Inter welcomes Benfica to San Siro Wednesday. Kickoff in the 2nd leg of the UEFA Champions League quarterfinal is set for 3 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Inter vs. Benfica odds, and make our best Champions League bets, picks and predictions.
In a surprising 1st leg, Inter took a 2-0 lead and never looked back. Despite being on the road, Inter had 1 more shot on target. Benfica did end with 57% of the possession and 4 more shots (12 in total), but will face a major deficit to overcome.
Inter is just 2-5-3 in their last 10 games throughout all competitions. They sit 5th in Serie A, the top Italian league, and average 1.6 goals per game while allowing 1.13 per game. They are led offensively by F Lautaro Martinez, who has 14 goals in 30 matches.
Benfica is 11-2-1 on the road. They sit No. 1 in the Premeira Liga, the top Portuguese league. Benfica won 12 straight games, taking down Club Brugge 7-1 in the Round of 16, yet has now lost 3 in a row which includes defeats to Porto, Inter and Chaves.
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Inter vs. Benfica odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 11:49 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Inter +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Benfica +260 (bet $100 to win $260) | Draw +240
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -110 | U: -125)
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Inter vs. Benfica picks and predictions
Prediction
Benfica 1, Inter 0
Moneyline (ML)
SPRINKLE BENFICA (+240).
Last year, Benfica lost 3-1 at home to Liverpool and then drew 3-3 on the road. Liverpool was an elite side last season, but Benfica lost then went on the road and bounced back.
They have a dominant offense and will want to push the pace here. They beat Club Brugge in the Round of 16 and Juventus in the group stage on the road and haven’t lost in the Champions League on the road so far this season.
Inter has also lost 4 of their last 8 matches, so they haven’t necessarily played well as of late. They have lost 3 straight home league matches as well. Put it all together and, at this value, take BENFICA (+240).
Over/Under (O/U)
BET UNDER 2.5 (-125).
Inter has failed to score in 4 of their last 7 matches, and there has only been 1 goal scored in 3 of their last 6. They have gone Under this total in 7 straight games and in 10 of their last 11. That’s telling of how they play and, against an unfamiliar opponent and being up 2-0, they may opt to park the bus and ensure they don’t give up multiple goals.
As for Benfica, they have gone Under in 3 of their last 4 and have had fewer than 1 expected goal in 2 of their last 4. They have also allowed fewer than 1 expected goal in 6 of their last 8. They have a solid defense and haven’t been as dynamic offensively.
Couple it all together and back the UNDER 2.5 (-125).
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