Three significant questions have been nagging the NTT IndyCar Series in recent months. The first is of the large and overarching variety: Will it go hybrid in 2024?
That answer, according to everyone I’ve spoken with who would know, is a declarative yes.
IndyCar will race next season with its well-established 2.2-liter twin-turbo V6 internal combustion engines, the same that were used in 2023, and brand-new energy recovery systems (ERS) developed in a partnership between Chevrolet and Ilmor Engineering, Honda and Honda Performance Development, and IndyCar.
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The second and more immediate question comes with an answer that lacks the same assuredness as the first: Will the ERS side of those hybrid powertrains be ready to start the season in approximately 90 days?
All parties involved in the creation and development of the ERS project are doing everything they can to make it happen before the green flag waves over the Firestone Grand Prix at St. Petersburg on March 10, but the series isn’t ready to respond in the affirmative as to whether its field of cars will compete at Round 1 in hybrid configuration.
“There’s a lot of really, really smart people that are working really hard to get this thing done,” IndyCar president Jay Frye told RACER. “And we’re very confident, all of us — including internally at IndyCar — that we’re going to get this done.”
The last question involves defining when the project will be done. As the series’ non-committal response suggests, that answer remains elusive.
Concerns over IndyCar’s ability to outfit its grid of 27 full-time cars with fully tested and reliable ERS units were heightened last week when all track testing was abruptly cancelled for December. The cancellation comes after a busy stretch of on-track running from mid-August through early November with prototype versions of the ERS units. Meaningful progress was being made at those outings, but reliability issues also became a frequent hindrance to completing the validation and sign-off process.
Prior to the cancellation, teams were scheduled to test this week on the Homestead-Miami road course and another test was likely to happen days before Christmas at Sebring. In place of ongoing track tests, a series official told RACER the month of December will be used to conduct more ERS dyno testing. RACER also understands a higher level of confidence with durability has been achieved, but nobody has characterized the spec ERS units as being bulletproof.
The pressing matter at hand is one of ever-diminishing time. The next round of track tests are said to be tentatively scheduled for the latter stages of January which, assuming they hold, would leave little more than one month between the resumption of ERS track testing and the need for teams to head to Florida for the March 10 championship opener. If any new delays occur, IndyCar could be forced to start the season in non-hybrid configuration.
Separate from any conversations regarding ERS reliability, Chevy/Ilmor and Honda/HPD are tasked with overseeing mass production of the devices in a highly compressed timespan. Beyond supplying the 27 cars at the debut race, a sizable number of spare ERS units — enough to handle any failures that might arise during the opening event — are necessary to have on hand, which would likely take the minimum output number to 40 units or more.
Delivering enough systems to support all entries, and the extras to deal with a worst-case scenario, is an unenviable task for the ERS project partners to accomplish with the time left on the calendar.
In kind, a number of IndyCar teams that have spoken with RACER say they are aware of the situation and will be prepared to race at St. Petersburg, minus the ERS units, if required.
For IndyCar, establishing contingency plans to go hybrid at some point after St. Petersburg — possibly in April at Long Beach or Barber Motorsports Park, or later — in order to give the ERS project more time to achieve an overwhelming state of readiness could be the next big decision to make.
According to Penske Entertainment CEO Mark Miles, the series’ target is firmly fixed on crossing the hybrid threshold at the first race, and as a result, it has yet to reach the point of formalizing a Plan B or Plan C.
“We, with Honda and Chevy, have tried to think through every scenario,” Miles told RACER. “So I don’t want to characterize us as sitting on a plan, because we think we’re prepared to deal with whatever contingencies could arise. Everybody continues to be very focused on testing, and in terms of the [vacated December test] schedule, that doesn’t mean that the development isn’t continuing at Mach 3 in terms of dynamic development, the production processes, and the like.
“But with that said, we’re prepared to deal with any situation which could come up.”
Under a previous timeline, IndyCar hoped to supply each of its 10 full-time teams with one ready-to-go 2024-spec ERS unit in December before sending more to complete each entry, but that target has also been pushed to a later and undefined date.
So far, only the official testing teams, with Arrow McLaren and Team Penske selected by Chevy, and Andretti Global and Chip Ganassi Racing nominated by Honda, have used ERS units in their cars. Through late October, more than 4000 laps and 10,000 miles of running had been completed by the four teams across a mix of road courses and ovals.
In contrast, IndyCar’s other six full-time teams have turned zero laps of hybrid testing, which could create a sizable competitive disadvantage if those six are unable to amass similar pre-season mileage with the ERS units prior to St. Petersburg or wherever the hybrid era might launch.
Thanks to the dedication from Chevy/Ilmor and Honda/HPD, the series will have the ability to go hybrid in 2024, and it’s not impossible for it to occur at the initial round on the 17-race calendar.
But if there are any lingering doubts as to whether extreme durability or a sufficient volume of spares can be provided by the early March go-live date, Miles says IndyCar will err on the side of caution and uphold its commitment to its fans.
“There’s always been clarity that we will get the hybrid,” he said. “We’ll get it on the track, and we’ll improve our racing. But we aren’t going to sacrifice the tremendous quality of the racing to get there. So it’ll be ready when it’s ready. And at this point, we still we have not decided to back off of St. Pete.”