The Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) play the Baylor Bears (2-0) Wednesday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind., in the Jimmy V Classic. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Illinois-Baylor college basketball betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.
USA TODAY Sports ranked the Bears No. 1 and the Fighting Illini No. 10 in the preseason Men’s Basketball Poll.
Illinois vs. Baylor: Betting odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Illinois +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Baylor -209 (bet $209 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Illinois +4.5 (-110) | Baylor -4.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 142.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Illinois vs. Baylor: Three things to know
- Fourth-year head coach Brad Underwood has Illinois trending up even after its 21-10 truncated 2019-20 campaign. This is Illinois’ highest ranking since 2012-13 and this is the biggest game in the Underwood-era at Illinois. The Fighting Illini easily won and covered the spread in their first two games this season but eked past Ohio 77-75 as 15.5-point favorites.
- The 2020-21 season has started out business as usual in Baylor’s 18th season under coach Scott Drew. The Bears demolished and covered against their first two opponents this year. Baylor has been ranked in several seasons since Drew has taken over and the Bears have made eight NCAA tournaments (would’ve been nine last season) during his tenure.
- USA TODAY Sports and the Associated Press may be higher on Illinois than college hoops bettors. Advanced college basketball guru Ken Pomeroy ranks Baylor No. 2 but Illinois just No. 22 in his college basketball ratings.
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Illinois vs. Baylor: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Baylor 78, Illinois 69
Money line (ML)
One of my tenets of sports gambling (right or wrong) is that I will not lay -170 in regular-season NBA or anything college hoops. Forget about Baylor -209 and I am not crazy about money line parlays for college hoops, either.
Baylor is the right side but PASS ON THE MONEY LINE.
Against the spread (ATS)
It might be a good time to buy stock in the Illinois basketball program moving forward but not for this game. Baylor is more used to these intense games between ranked competition than the neophyte Fighting Illini.
Since Underwood took over Illinois, the Illini are 4-8 ATS in neutral-site games, 10-12 ATS vs. ranked opponents and 14-18-1 ATS in non-conference games with a plus-12.8-point average margin. Over that same time span, Baylor is 11-4 ATS in neutral-site games, 14-11-2 ATS vs. ranked opponents and 22-15 ATS in non-conference games.
The lopsided margin in Illinois’ non-conference games is due to the Fighting Illini playing weaker out of conference opponents. Look at their first three games: All home games against non-Power 5 opponents, two of which were double-digit blowout wins.
GIMME BAYLOR -4.5 (-110) for 2 units.
Over/Under (O/U)
Unofficially, I lean Over 142.5 (-110) because Baylor’s offense has been balling this season and we have a pretty low total; however, I am not as dialed into totals as sides, so officially I PASS ON THE TOTAL.
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