I hasten to offer a clarifying statement at the start of this piece, so that no one gets the wrong idea: There are more than two cycles at work in present-day Big Ten basketball. I am not limiting the amount of cycles to only two. More can be found and remarked on.
Today — here and now — I am focusing on two cycles, and Illinois basketball is part of them. This line of thought offers perspective on the Fighting Illini before Wednesday’s game against the Wisconsin Badgers. It also sheds light on what has been happening in Big Ten basketball in recent years.
Let’s start with the more immediate cycle at work in the Big Ten: the simple reality that downtrodden teams are having a happy moment this season. Illinois was 12-21 last season, but the Illini have begun to make substantial improvements and take concrete forward steps as a program this year. A team which was 4-11 after 15 games at this point in January of 2019 is 10-5 in January of 2020. Illinois has lost to Michigan State, Maryland and Arizona on the road, all expected losses. The Illini would like to have back at least one of two losses — Miami at home, Missouri in St. Louis — but if Illinois is basically one game short of an ideal situation, the program is fundamentally on schedule this season.
Illinois — should it continue its upward trajectory — is poised to make the NCAA Tournament and join both Rutgers and Penn State in the Big Dance. This is one of the central stories of the Big Ten in early 2020: Several teams in the conference are picking themselves off the canvas and creating fresh excitement among their fan bases. It is the year of revival in the conference. If we go back a few years, we can see that other programs — most notably Northwestern — have enjoyed breakthrough seasons after struggling. Even Nebraska made an NCAA Tournament not THAT long ago (in 2014). If a Big Ten basketball program seems to have no hope, wait a few years. Illinois is part of that parade. The Illini have a lot of work to do to make the NCAAs, but they are on the right track. After the first two seasons of Brad Underwood’s tenure in Champaign, that was hardly a sure thing.
Here is the larger cycle Illinois is part of, however: The Illini might be on their way to the NCAA Tournament this season. Let’s say that does indeed happen. Would there be any assurance the Illini could make the music last? This is the uncertainty which looms over most Big Ten programs. I would say that five conference programs — Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State — can currently and reasonably expect to be very good nearly every year with few interruptions. The other nine cannot, or at least, have not yet proven they can.
Wisconsin basketball fans are especially happy — rightly so, I might add — that Minnesota basketball simply hasn’t been able to gain much traction this century. The Golden Gophers have made the NCAA Tournament in back-to-back seasons only once this century, in 2009 and 2010. Minnesota just doesn’t build or gather momentum as a program… and that dynamic applies to the other eight schools in the conference: Iowa, Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers, Penn State, and — of course — Illinois. Name the last time any of those programs hit or came close to hitting their ceiling of potential in back-to-back seasons. Maybe Maryland in recent years, but I would say that Maryland has not maximized its potential in any individual season since joining the Big Ten. The Terrapins have gotten solid NCAA Tournament seeds in the 4 to 6 range, but those teams had 2-seed potential and didn’t come especially close to realizing it.
Cycle No. 1: You can pick yourself up in the Big Ten even if the previous few seasons have been bad.
Cycle No. 2: If you have a good season in the Big Ten — and you’re not a Michigan school, Wisconsin, Purdue, or Ohio State — that good season is typically surrounded by subpar seasons.
These are the two Big Ten basketball cycles Illinois is currently a part of. We will see if the Illini or any of other eight members of the conference’s underclass can break free of these chains in the 2020s.