The Wisconsin Badgers could very easily be a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Winning the Big Ten championship might have moved them onto the 4 line just before Selection Sunday. Let’s acknowledge this point, though: Even if Wisconsin doesn’t get a No. 4 seed, it will surely be a No. 5 seed. If there is a big-picture question about Wisconsin’s seed, it is more possible for UW to rise all the way to a No. 3 seed than to fall all the way down to a 6 seed.
Why am I making that point? Simple: If you are a 4 or 5 seed, you’re still in the path of a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16. In order to avoid a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament, you either have to rise above the 4 line — to a No. 3 seed — or fall below the 5 line to a No. 6 seed. Wisconsin’s odds of rising above a 4 or below a 5 are low at this point. UW is almost surely going to be in the path of a No. 1 seed in the Sweet 16, also referred to as the regional semifinal round.
One of the bigger stories of the 2020 NCAA Tournament is going to be the collection of 4 and 5 seeds which will be bracketed against the No. 1 seeds. Why? Because blue-bloods aren’t going to be widely represented on the 1 line in this tournament. Kansas is the only blue-blood which will be a No. 1 seed. Is Gonzaga a blue-blood? Maybe… but I would personally argue that GU has to win a national championship before cementing that status. Kansas is the only obvious blue-blood program on the No. 1 seed line.
Gonzaga will be the 1 seed in the West. Baylor will be the top seed in the South Region. In the East, it’s a wild scramble involving Dayton, Florida State, and San Diego State.
With Wisconsin likely to meet one of those top seeds in the Sweet 16 — in the event the Badgers get that far — let’s ask the question: Which region would be best for UW?
Reasonable people can and will disagree, but to me, it’s not so much which team Wisconsin would like to play; it’s more a question of which teams Wisconsin would like to avoid.
I am more clear on the teams UW would like to elude than on the teams the Badgers would like to play.
Kansas, with Udoka Azubuike in the paint and Devon Dotson on the perimeter, has elite players who would pose major problems for Nate Reuvers and D’Mitrik Trice. Kansas could bother Wisconsin’s offense near the basket and on the wings. I don’t like that matchup for the Badgers, who need to play a team with fewer stars and inconsistent discipline.
Gonzaga has fewer stars, yes, but the Zags play very integrated basketball. They have worked well together all season long. They don’t make lots of mistakes. Wisconsin would probably be able to play GU closely, but Gonzaga would have to play well below its normal standard for the Badgers to have a good chance.
Wisconsin would probably benefit if it avoided the Midwest (Kansas) or West (Gonzaga). Playing Baylor (South) or the No. 1 seed in the East would seem to promise an easier path to the Final Four.
Baylor is a disciplined defensive team, but the Bears have no elite scorers. Wisconsin could certainly get into a rock fight with Baylor and pull it out.
San Diego State has been an ordinary team over the past three weeks. The Aztecs have played nowhere near the standard they set in late November, all of December, and all of January.
Dayton has Obi Toppin and Jalen Crutcher, but the Flyers have spent two months playing in the Atlantic 10, and their depth hasn’t been tested recently against elite competition. In Maui before Thanksgiving, yes, but not recently.
Florida State, the other contender for a No. 1 seed in the East, barely beat Notre Dame a few days after losing to Clemson. The Seminoles are very tough, but they have won a lot of close games this season and often play to the level of their competition. They go through lulls in games and would be vulnerable against a locked-in version of the Badgers.
We’ll see where Wisconsin goes on Selection Sunday, but for now, a trip to the South or East would seem to be a lot better than the Midwest or West.