The three-year contract Raheem Mostert signed prior to the 2019 season wasn’t supposed to be an issue. It was a longer-term deal for a special teams ace who’d also flashed some ball-carrying ability in a small, 40-carry sample size. One offseason later the three-year, $8.65 million agreement leaves Mostert looking relatively underpaid.
The journeyman running back broke out in his fifth season with 772 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on 137 regular-season carries. He continued to shine in the postseason with 53 rushes, 336 yards and five touchdowns in three games — including a monster 220-yard, four-touchdown day in the NFC championship game. Now he figures to spearhead a rushing attack that finished second in the NFL a season ago.
Matt Barrows of the Athletic reported the 49ers have discussed an extension for Mostert that would not only keep him on the team beyond the 2022 season, but would also likely bump his pay to a salary more in line with his production. The average annual value of Mostert’s deal is $2.9 million. Here are all the running backs ahead of him in AAV per Over the Cap:
Christian McCaffrey, CAR
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
Le’Veon Bell, NYJ
David Johnson, HOU
Derrick Henry, TEN
Kenyan Drake, ARZ
Melvin Gordon, DEN
Saquon Barkley, NYG
Leonard Fournette, JAX
Austin Ekeler, LAC
Todd Gurley, ATL
Duke Johnson, HOU
Giovani Bernard, CIN
Mark Ingram, BAL
Jordan Howard, MIA
Tevin Coleman, SF
James White, NE
Latavius Murray, NO
Jalen Richard, OAK
Kareem Hunt, CLE
Matt Breida, MIA
Rex Burkhead, NE
Mike Davis, CAR
Josh Jacobs, OAK
While Mostert hasn’t reached the McCaffrey or Elliott tier, he belongs in the group with Gurley, Johnson, Bernard and Ingram. They’re all in the $5 million to $5.5 million range.
San Francisco on Day 3 of the draft traded running back Matt Breida to the Dolphins for a fifth-round pick. He had 123 carries last year, and the only move the 49ers made to replace him came when they signed undrafted rookies Salvon Ahmed from Washington and JaMycal Hasty from Baylor.
The door is open for Mostert to post close to 200 rushing attempts this season. He’d go well over 1,000 yards if he continues churning out more than 5.0 yards per carry. If that happens, his already low $3.5 million cap hit becomes arguably the best bargain in the NFL. Aiming to avoid that scenario by getting an early pay day makes sense for Mostert.
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The 49ers might hesitate to dish out a new deal until they see another big year from him though. While Mostert is averaging a whopping 6.0 yards per carry in his career, he’s rushed just 178 times in the regular season. He has a skill set that figures to continue translating into success in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if they waited to see if he could replicate last year’s production in a larger role.
Versatility is a hallmark of Shanahan’s offense, which is part of the reason why Coleman and Breida continued getting snaps even when Mostert was clearly the team’s most effective runner. Unless he improves as a receiver, Mostert may continue to lose snaps to better receiving backs.
Pro Football Focus graded Mostert as the team’s worst pass-catcher among running backs, and marked him down for two drops on just 21 targets. His 21 targets in the passing game were the fewest among the team’s running backs aside from Jeff Wilson Jr. who played only 60 offensive snaps. Mostert had 180 receiving yards on 14 catches, but 152 of those yards came after the catch per PFF.
Despite his shortcomings as a receiver, Mostert is undoubtedly the 49ers’ best running back. He also continued to contribute as one of the team’s best special teams players. His deal was fine when he was a special teams player who might get some carries sprinkled in. Now he’s set to take on a larger role. He won’t get the pay check of a top RB, but he’s a productive back for one of the best rushing attacks in the league, and his compensation should reflect that at some point in the near future.
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