Playing its usual slow, methodical and gritty style of basketball, Iowa State has been able to keep scores low through the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament, beating No. 6 LSU and No. 3 Wisconsin without having to score more than 59 points against either school.
That may have to change Friday, however, when the No. 11 Cyclones meet No. 10 Miami in the Sweet 16. The Hurricanes are favored by 2.5 points and have an offense unlike any Iowa State has played to this point in March. They have four players averaging double-digit points, led by senior guard Kameron McGusty and sophomore Isaiah Wong.
On the other end, Iowa State struggles to score but has survived sub-40% shooting in the tournament thanks to a lineup that ranks fifth in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. So the Cyclones will be up to the challenge Miami presents.
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 11 Iowa State Odds
Spread: Miami -2.5
Moneyline: Miami (-115), Iowa State (+125)
Point Total: 132.5
[tipico]
Even with good defense, however, Iowa State will likely have to shoot better than they have — as No. 2 Auburn found out in a 79-61 second-round loss to Miami. Iowa State’s best and most efficient scorer, senior guard Izaiah Brockington, has to carry a large load, but the good news is he can only play better than he has after mostly struggling in postseason play. Especially against a Miami team that got torched for 48% shooting in a two-point win over USC, Brockington is due for a big game.
He’ll need help, so it’s a good sign that teammate Gabe Kalscheur came alive for 22 points against Wisconsin and Tyrese Hunter led the team with 23 against LSU. If they all put it together at once, that makes for an intriguing game that could come down to the final possession. In that scenario, Iowa State covers the small spread, but Miami holds on for the win in a game that falls under the 133.5 point total.