The NFC side of the 2022 NFL Playoff bracket is unique. Not only will the Divisional Round feature a pair of rematches, it’s two throwbacks to the exact same Sunday: Week 3.
September 26 was the backdrop for a comeback win for the Green Bay Packers against the San Francisco 49ers in a sloppy, uneven game. It was also the setting for a statement-making home win from the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams, led by new acquisition Matthew Stafford, never trailed in a 34-24 victory that dealt the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers their first loss since November 2020.
It was a hype-building triumph that LA ultimately couldn’t live all the way up to. Stafford out-dueled Tom Brady thanks to a 343-yard, four-touchdown performance. Head coach Sean McVay’s pass-heavy offense exploited holes in the Tampa secondary and his defense did just enough to keep the Bucs at arm’s length as the game wound down.
Can the Rams do it again? They’ve opened as only a 2.5-point road underdog at Tipico Sportsbook after Monday night’s commanding win over a floundering Arizona Cardinals team. There’s reason to believe they can tiptoe through the Buccaneer secondary again based on that first matchup. Let’s take a closer look.
How the Rams’ passing game led to a big win in September
Stafford had one of his best games of 2021 thanks in large part to an offensive line that kept him upright. He was only sacked once and hit four times against the league’s second-best pass rush, per pressure rate. This left him plenty of time to throw on a day where Tampa blitzed on 28 percent of his dropbacks — roughly a third less than it did across the rest of the regular season.
That means we’ll likely see more blitzes this weekend from a team that got burned through the air repeatedly in September. A look back at that game tape shows how that extra time allowed Stafford to thrive, and how things could have been much worse for the Bucs in Week 3.
Tampa came out in a mix of zone and quarters coverage and got beaten twice for what looked to be big Cooper Kupp gains, but the All-Pro wideout uncharacteristically dropped a pair of tough catches in the first quarter. The space in between these intermediate and deep shots was loaded with short sideline throws near the line of scrimmage as McVay attempted to flatten out the Bucs’ coverage.
Tampa knew Kupp was a problem, even despite early struggles, which is why defensive coordinator Todd Bowles threw several different coverage schemes at him. But the prolific receiver was able to sniff out zone coverage and find wide open seams in the middle of it:
McVay also did a good job moving him around the lineup to exploit weaknesses. Here he gets matched up with veteran Ross Cockrell and his 106.9 passer rating allowed at the line of scrimmage. Knowing he’s got a mismatch, Stafford doesn’t look anywhere else; a defensive holding penalty leads to five easy yards and a first down en route to the game’s first points.
Sometimes we got to see the two styles collide, like when Cockrell passed Kupp off to far-away safety help while biting on a fourth-quarter play fake, leading to an extremely easy 17-yard gain:
But that also happened in a game where the journeyman defensive back was forced to play a season-high 88 percent of his team’s snaps thanks to the absence of top corner Jamel Dean. Dean left the game 12 minutes into the first quarter and didn’t return, leaving Tampa without its best option for limiting Kupp. He’ll play a much larger role Sunday, though he won’t be stuck with WR1 duties all game if his performance against the Stefon Diggs and the Bills’ passing attack in Week 14 is any indication.
This is why it’s easy to put “stop Cooper Kupp” at the top of your Keys to the Game list and so difficult to actually do so. Both the wideout and his quarterback are extremely capable at reading defenses. Bowles tried to blur those lines with an array of different strategies but struggled to find one that worked; after those two early drops, Kupp caught nine of his next 10 targets for 96 yards. 70 percent of those throws resulted in either first downs or touchdowns.
He’s not the only pass catcher about whom the Buccaneers have to worry. Tyler Higbee turned an average target distance of 0.6 yards into five catches for 50 yards and a touchdown. DeSean Jackson broke free for a 75-yard touchdown when safety Mike Edwards had his ankles broken by a ghost:
Jackson won’t be on the roster Sunday, but Van Jefferson has done a passable impression of him as the team’s primary deep threat since his release.
Asking Stafford to be the same quarterback he was in September comes with complications. The former Lion backslid through the latter half of the season before coming back online to finish the year and then pour cement on the Arizona Cardinals’ grave. Here’s the trend line of his per-game passer rating through 16 regular season games:
Odell Beckham’s newfound familiarity with McVay’s offense has helped stabilize that roller coaster of performances. He’ll fill the role Robert Woods played in that Week 3 matchup (three catches, 33 yards) while serving as a viable threat that pulls Tampa away from relentlessly double-teaming Kupp.
McVay will also have Cam Akers back in the lineup after he somehow returned to the field after missing only six months with a torn Achilles. He had 17 carries in the Wild Card game and will likely be part of the reliable short-yardage game that sets up longer gains. Los Angeles may need that group to operate at full capacity because…
Stopping the Bucs’ run game may not be as easy as it was in September
Here’s where Leonard Fournette’s health will play a massive role. Tampa’s RB1 had just four carries for eight yards the first time these teams met this fall. The Buccaneers, trailing by double-digits for most of the game, implemented a pass-heavy approach that limited them to just nine handoffs and 19 yards from the team’s running backs.
The Bucs’ RB plan for Sunday’s game is uncertain thanks to injuries that made Gio Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn their top backs in the Wild Card round. There’s reason to believe Fournette will be back in the lineup after missing the last four weeks with a hamstring injury. He was a game-time decision before being left out of the active lineup last weekend.
That could present a major test for Los Angeles’ top-five rushing defense. Fournette is coming off his most complete and efficient season as a pro and was a massive asset to Tampa Bay’s playoff run the year prior. He averaged 112 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown per game to provide a perfect cantilever to Brady’s high-impact passing game last winter. While Bernard — who had nine catches from the backfield when these teams first met — and Vaughn were capable replacements in the Wild Card round, having similar success against the Rams is a big ask.
Even if a rusty Fournette can’t create space with his runs, he’ll be a vital part of a screen-heavy offense that’s helped create space downfield. 238 of his 432 passing yards against LA came after the catch, which is pretty standard for 2021 Touchdown Tom. Brady threw significantly more passes behind the line of scrimmage — 7.6 per game! — than he has at any point over the last six seasons. 470 of his 682 pass attempts (68.9 percent) traveled fewer than 10 yards downfield.
Despite this, Brady still ranked ninth in the league in average air yards per pass. Why? Because those short passes created room for deep balls to Mike Evans and Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski later on. Brady was the second-most efficient passer among QBs who threw at least 65 passes 20+ yards downfield.
We saw this pay off in Week 3. On Tampa’s second drive Brady threw three screens and a short crossing route before turning Gronkowski loose up the seam on third down. If the typically-reliable tight end catches this ball, the Bucs’ probably take an early lead:
Brady won’t have Brown to reel in deep routes and won’t have Chris Godwin to draw safeties near the line of scrimmage with his cache of reliable crossing routes. Godwin’s role has more or less filtered down to Tyler Johnson, while Breshad Perriman is now the mercurial veteran capable of making big plays downfield. That’s obviously a downgrade, but if anyone’s capable of squeezing more from less at wideout it’s Brady.
He’ll also have a full strength Gronk, who was uncharacteristically shaky after taking a massive hit in the first half in that Week 3 loss. Playoff Gronk, like Playoff Lenny alongside him, is a sleeping giant capable of lifting his team to new heights or suffering through a mostly average game. Getting that pair firing and taking the pressure off a suddenly-shallow WR corps would be immensely valuable for Brady.
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When it comes to offensive philosophies, the Buccaneers are going to cultivate a screen-heavy offense in hopes of exploiting LA’s jailbreak pressure up front and springing big plays downfield later. The Rams are going to see what Tampa Bay is giving them and let Kupp and Stafford figure things out from there. They’ll fold in run-after-catch help from Beckham and Higbee and infinitely more Akers runs than we saw in the first matchup.
In Week 3, the Bucs blitzed less and were picked apart by a veteran quarterback capable of reading their defense. Tom Brady’s attempts to close that gap led to 432 passing yards, but never the home run he hoped those short passes would create; more than 100 of his passing yards came after LA began playing prevent defense with a 17-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Now, with the season on the line, Stafford will be tasked with recreating that magic, and Todd Bowles will be forced to stop him. The end result will be a chess match between a vaunted offensive mind and a proven and effective defensive one. Ultimately, this game could be decided by who makes more plays — the former Lions franchise quarterback desperate for validation, or the oft-tested defense itching to prove it’s not the weak link in Brady’s quest for an eight Super Bowl title.
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