While the exact details of the NBA’s plan to restart are not yet known, many of the outlines of where the league intends to move forward are in place. The format in which a postseason takes place is a work in progress with a World Cup-esque system discussed that would see teams placed into groups of four or five teams.
More recently, a play-in tournament was also brought up during commissioner Adam Silver and the league’s survey sent to each NBA team. In either scenario, Lonzo Ball and the New Orleans Pelicans figure to be one of the teams that will continue to play.
But while the top two-thirds of the league finish out the regular season and advance into the postseason, the bottom third of the league may have already played their final games. And if those teams are indeed finished, the landscape of the upcoming NBA Draft could be impacted.
As it stands, the Golden State Warriors are comfortably in the top spot in the draft lottery, 4.0 games “ahead” of the Cavaliers. But the second spot and the sixth spot, currently belonging to the New York Knicks, are separated by just 1.5 games. The margins are razor thin as the Timberwolves own the third spot with a .297 win percentage while the Hawks are in the fourth spot with a .299 win percentage.
Those teams have anywhere between 15-18 games remaining on their schedule and considering the small measures between those tops spots currently, those games could be particularly impactful to each team’s percentages of landing either the top pick or inside the top four.
Again, for example, the Cavaliers currently have a 14.0 percent chance at the top pick and a 52.1% chance at remaining in the top four. The Knicks, meanwhile, have a 9.0 percent chance at the top pick and a 37.2% chance at sliding into the top four.
Though the NBA’s new lottery system leveled the playing field and allowed a team like the Lakers a better chance to jump into the lottery last season, having the best percentages is still, mathematically, the best chance at having a shot at the top spot.
If none of those teams 10 teams have the opportunity to play again this season, it would likely lead to the lottery standings being frozen as is, sealing the potential fortunes for many. While the draft lottery isn’t one of the top things on the mind of the league and Silver, it will certainly be something impacted by their decision on how to finish the season.