The Miami Dolphins’ postseason hopes are all but officially over with the team sitting at 2-8. We’ll give you a moment, we know this is sudden and difficult news to swallow.
But the push to the postseason will still captivate Dolphins fans everywhere, because Miami has a lot of skin in the game during this stretch run to the playoffs — namely where the draft picks of the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans fall in the draft order. They belong to Miami. This year, more than ever, Dolphins fans should stay tuned into the final leg of the 2019 season. Because while the Pittsburgh Steelers currently sit at 5-5 and the Houston Texans are currently 6-4, both are legit threats to miss the playoffs all together: which would give the Dolphins three picks within the first 20 overall selections in the 2020 NFL Draft.
How do we get there?
Well the Dolphins are locked in. They’ll probably finish the season 3-13 or 4-12. They still hold games against the New York Jets, the New York Giants and the Cincinnati Bengals: they ought to find a win or two along the way. But with many of the top teams still facing each other as well, Miami’s odds of landing a top-5 overall pick are nearly guaranteed at this point unless Dan Marino, Jason Taylor and Richmond Webb show up next week to play the Browns and the rest of the season.
What about the Steelers and the Texans?
Pittsburgh, at 5-5, has a realistic shot to go 4-2 over their final 6 games. They play the Bengals, Browns, Cardinals, Bills, Jets and Ravens. But 9 wins probably doesn’t get you into the postseason in the AFC this season. The Steelers’ hole was mighty big at 1-4 — likely too big to dig out of. The critical games to ensure Pittsburgh doesn’t snag a wild card spot are the obvious games against the Bills and Ravens. Dolphins fans should root hard for Steelers losses there. If they come, Pittsburgh is effective out. Period.
The Texans? They’re 6-4 and they’re facing a pretty interesting final stretch. They play the Colts, Patriots, Broncos, Titans, Bucs and Titans again. At 6-4, Houston can also go 4-2 over this stretch and miss the playoffs. The biggest game in this stretch is the one this week: a home game on Thursday Night against the Colts. We are all Colts fans for this one! If Houston drops their home game against Indy this week and falls in Foxboro to the Patriots the following week to fall to 6-6, the table is set for the Dolphins’ picks to fall into the top-20, even if the Texans were to win out and finish 10-6.
How? Three teams: the Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts and the Oakland Raiders. If the Colts take the AFC South and push the Texans into the wild card chase, the Dolphins will benefit from every Bills and Raiders win the rest of the way. Buffalo, at 7-3, would need to finish with 4 wins the rest of the way to lock in one spot over Houston. They play the Broncos, Cowboys, Ravens, Steelers, Patriots and Jets. Denver, New York and Pittsburgh are all “should win” games — so the pressure then comes to find one win out of three tries against Dallas, Baltimore and New England. The Ravens game is at home.
The Raiders? They’re at 6-4 — so they’ll need to catch fire to ensure they lock Houston out. The good news is the schedule is pretty soft: Jets, Chiefs, Titans, Jaguars, Chargers and Broncos await. The Raiders have better records than every team there except the Chiefs. Could they win all those games?
If they do, Miami would be sitting pretty for the 2020 NFL Draft.
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