The most famous instance of a game in which the top two teams in overall DVOA met was Week 11 of the 2018 season. It was against the Kansas City Chiefs (No. 1 in DVOA) and the Los Angeles Rams (No. 2 in DVOA), and the resulting 54-51 score made this one of the most thrilling games in NFL history.
Given that the Miami Dolphins were coming off a 70-20 shellacking of the Denver Broncos that vaulted them to the top spot in this year’s metrics, and the Buffalo Bills ranked second through the first three weeks of the season, and given that both of these teams have offenses that can throw multiple touchdowns at you at a dizzying rate, you’d be forgiven for expecting a similar result in this crucial Week 4 matchup.
At first, it looked that way. The two heavyweights traded touchdowns to a 14-14 stalemate early in the second quarter, and then — somewhat improbably — the Bills kept scoring, and the Dolphins didn’t. Tua Tagovailoa completed 14 of 18 passes for 155 yards in the first half, but Josh Allen matched and exceeded him, completing 14 of 17 passes for 201 yards and three touchdowns. The difference between Allen’s three first-half touchdowns and Tagovailoa’s no first half touchdowns explains a lot about the 31-14 halftime score in Buffalo’s favor.
Buffalo’s eventual 48-20 win saw Tagovailoa complete 25 of 35 passes for 282 yards, one touchdown, one interception, four sacks, and a passer rating of 92.8. Not a horrible game, but not what was required against Allen, who became the second player in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards, four touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown and a 158.3 passer rating – the highest attainable mark – in a game, joining Aaron Rodgers, who did it in 2019.
So, the Dolphins were in a unusual position — they were playing catchup against an offense that was outdoing them, and they were doing it against a defense that had all the answers to the test. No matter how dynamic an offense is, there are ways to at least limit it, and the Bills did all the right things on that side of the ball.
Bills head coach/defensive shot-caller Sean McDermott and his staff called a brilliant game, which his players executed to perfection, over and over. They got pressure with four. They expanded Miami’s vertical concepts with stretchy, expansive coverage. They combined pressure and match concepts as well as any defense you’ll see. And they gave Tagovailoa muddy picture after muddy picture against an offense that is designed to create and exploit easy openings against most defenses.
“First off, I think the Buffalo Bills proved why they are the team that our whole division is trying to beat,” Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel said after the game. “They’ve won it for how many years in a row now. They made some adjustments, and we didn’t, so to speak. I think it was kind of compounding. It was something that – I’ll start by making sure I’m doing right by the players, and us as a coaching staff, putting people in the right positions for success. After the first couple drives, it was a struggle for us for a lot of the game. That’s something that can’t happen against a really good team.”
Bills safety Taylor Rapp, who replaced the injured Jordan Poyer for this game, explained it thusly:
“At the end of the day, I think in the week, preparation is all about us. Going back to our fundamentals, going back to our preparation, executing our game and keeping it to who we are. And we saw that come to life today.
“Sean and his whole defense is just trying to get a feel of how they’re attacking us, how they’re coming out, all their different motions… out motion, jet motion, moving around. So just getting a feel and settling in, we got into a good groove.”
Indeed they did, and here’s how they did it.