How the Bills can fit potential $16M J.J. Watt deal on salary cap

Explaining how Buffalo Bills can fit a $16 million deal for J.J. Watt on 2021 salary cap.

This NFL offseason has created a stir surrounding the salary cap.

It has also hyped up talk of three-time Defensive Player of the Year in JJ Watt potentially signing in Orchard Park.

… Let’s ease into this one.

Due to COVID-19 keeping fans out of stadiums last season, revenues in the league went down. Because of that, the salary cap next season will drop. Latest reports suggest the cap will fall from $198.2 million in 2020 to $180-185M.

Recent news also suggests that the Buffalo Bills are interested in Watt and that the defensive end could land a new contract that averages somewhere between $15-16M per season.

Too much for the Bills’ salary cap, right?

Well, not really. That’s not exactly how the NFL cap works… so let’s explain a bit.

Currently the Bills are around that $180-185M area in terms of where their cap number sits. According to Spotrac, if the salary cap is set at $185M, then the Bills will have $3.2M in space to use currently.

That’s not going to work for $16M, but that would have never been the case anyway.

Here’s the gist of how NFL teams can work around that. A cap hit could be lower than $16M for various reasons. First, if the contract has multiple years on the deal… and part of that yearly total of $16 is paid out via bonuses such as a signing bonus. If Watt sign a one-year deal for $16M base salary, then yes, that’s the cap hit.

For example: If Watt signs a $1M base salary and has $15M in bonuses over five years his cap hit would be $5M this year.

Breaking it down even further: We need more details on how a contract would be structured.

Reporting on $16M is noteworthy, but it does not tell us the full story on how the contract will be shaped, so fear not, Watt could still come to Buffalo even with that figure attached.

Things can get even more complicated as teams can sign players to contracts that could include “void years” later on down the line, too… but we’ll leave those specifics for general manager to Brandon Beane to figure out. We’re just going to stick to simple things here.

Speaking of Beane, he’ll also have to make some roster moves to free up more room than that potential $3.2M Buffalo currently has in cap space.

But remember this, we really don’t need to think of any those as things the team did in order to sign Watt. Several of those we’re going to happen regardless.

One of the most talked potential cap casualties this offseason so far is wide receiver John Brown. By most accounts, Brown’s a good guy and produced in his first season with the Bills.

But his contract now sets up as one that has to be either slashed or restructured. If released, Brown will save the Bills approximately $7.9M in cap space. That’s a big chunk.

Considering he’ll be 31 next season and that he dealt with injuries in 2020, there’s a very good chance that is not the contract Brown is playing on next season. With or without Watt.

Now, never say never, but it just makes too much sense to either cut Brown or reconstruct that contract. There are several others that fall in this type of area for the Bills as well such as defenders Vernon Butler and Quinton Jefferson.

So to recap: Can the Bills afford a one-year, $15M base salary deal, straight up? No, not at all. But Buffalo, nor any team, was ever going to sign Watt to such a contract.

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