While Jamal Adams’ future with the Jets is the biggest story of the 2020 offseason, it might not be the most important long-term decision Joe Douglas will make in his first few years as general manager. The eventual contract negotiations with Sam Darnold, who is eligible for an extension at the end of this upcoming season, are likely weighing on Douglas as he heads into his first full season with the Jets.
Douglas is always thinking long-term. He touted a “disciplined” approach in free agency this offseason that valued financial flexibility over everything else, and it’s why he mostly signed free agents to one-year contracts. The stalemate with Adams is likely a result of this mentality, as well as the eventual Darnold talks.
Quarterbacks are notoriously prioritized over every other position in football. They receive extensions much earlier in their careers and the best ones earn lucrative and/or long-term deals. Darnold will be no exception to this despite his tepid two seasons in the league. If Darnold performs well in 2020 and the Jets believe he’s the future of their franchise, they’ll pay him as soon as they can with the cap space they have before the market resets.
The Jets will likely give Darnold an extension even if he shows only a slight improvement in Year 3, but don’t expect it to be among the highest in the league unless he puts together an MVP or Super Bowl season. Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson will reset the market when they earn their contract extensions, but Darnold fits more in-line with the deals that Jared Goff and Carson Wentz got.
The Nos. 1 and 2 overall picks from 2016 both signed four-year deals before their fourth season in the league but didn’t become the highest-paid quarterbacks at that time. Goff received a $134 million contract with a $25 million signing bonus and $110 million guaranteed, while Wentz signed a $128 million contract with a $16.3 million signing bonus and $107.9 guaranteed. Both are better than Darnold, but neither earned exorbitant deals despite their position. They were expensive but fair for a quarterback.
Darnold won’t be the only quarterback looking for an extension next offseason. At least three other quarterbacks could get extensions around the same time as Darnold, all of which were fellow 2018 first-rounders. Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are all playing as well or better than Darnold and will be itching for a new contract as soon as possible. The Jets won’t wait to pay Darnold if the other quarterbacks from his draft class are pushing the market up.
This all comes back to Adams’ future for two reasons First, if the Jets pay Adams after three years, it sets the precedent that they’ll have to pay Darnold after three as well – and for more money. Secondly, paying Adams now means the Jets will lessen their flexibility in 2021 when Darnold will want his new deal, both because of the money they’d give Adams and because of the potential decline in the salary cap caused by the coronavirus pandemic.
There’s a chance the Jets could push Darnold’s extension to 2022, but only if they wait to pay Adams until 2021 after they see the financial landscape of their roster and the rest of the league. Giving Adams between $15-17 million now locks the Jets into a financial bind for 2021 even if the cap doesn’t drop considerably. It could create massive holes on the Jets roster if all of their money is tied up in a safety and quarterback and puts a lot of pressure on the players still on rookie deals.
Basically, Darnold’s impending contract extension will force the Jets to think about next offseason more than this one – and that means they will have to choose between Adams’ happiness and their long-term financial viability or choose between their All-Pro safety and their franchise quarterback.
History tells us that, normally, the quarterback wins that battle.