The Cleveland Browns had a very good season in 2020 and hope that they can build on that in 2021. While the 11 – 5 season and a playoff victory were exciting, the hope moving forward is that that was just a starting point.
Players returning from injuries could be one source of hope for an improved team in 2021. With Grant Delpit and Greedy Williams missing the entire season and Odell Beckham Jr. missing half of the team’s games, the Browns believe they will be getting three key pieces back.
The team also dealt with a number of key players missing games throughout 2020. For the offense, Nick Chubb missed four games, Austin Hooper and Rashard Higgins each missed three contests. On defense, Denzel Ward missed four games and Myles Garrett missed two games, as well as struggling with COVID-19 symptoms when he returned.
While injuries are bound to happen in such a physical game, Cleveland was hit with injuries to a lot of important pieces on the team. A player like Garrett or Beckham missing a game is far more important than Jacob Phillips or KhaDarel Hodge.
Pro Football Focus attempted to enumerate that importance with a new data point called WAR-Adjusted Injuries Lost (WAIL). WAIL takes into account the quality of the player, using Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and combines that with the number of games missed.
In respect to WAIL, the Browns were in the top half of the league in the total impact of injuries based on the WAIL measurement. As seen in this graph, teams that lost their quarterbacks for any amount of time were the highest on the list. The Browns are grouped among the next tier of teams:
PFF notes in the article that WAIL is not stable from one year to the next. Like injuries, there is a randomness to how talented a player that gets injured is.
If the Browns are lucky enough to keep their best players (WAR is one measurement for that) healthy, their WAIL score will improve back toward the median of the NFL.
If the 2021 Browns are able to keep their best players healthy, along with all the additions they have made on the defensive side of the ball, they should have a strong chance to compete for the Super Bowl.