After ten seasons of the four-team College Football Playoff, the college football postseason is expanding to a 12-team format. The Oregon Ducks made the Playoff once in the four-team era, after going 11-1 in the 2014 regular season before losing to Ohio State in the national championship game that year.
Now, with 12 spots up for grabs in the expanded playoff, the regular season will be more forgiving and a second loss won’t necessarily be the curtain call for any team. The College Football Playoff Committee never selected a two-loss team in the four-team era, but now we may see two and three-loss teams glimpse the postseason.
On Friday, 247Sports published an article by Brad Crawford listing the teams most likely to make the College Football Playoff if they were to finish the season with three losses. Oregon is listed, with their three hypothetical losses coming against Ohio State, Michigan, and Ohio State once again in the Big Ten title game.
As Crawford points out, it’s unlikely the Ducks will get a chance to play in the Big Ten Championship with regular-season losses to the Buckeyes and the Wolverines, but if they do find themselves in the title game with two losses, I don’t see how the Big Ten Championship isn’t a do-or-die game for Oregon.
Although 12 teams in the College Football Playoff seems like a big jump from four, I don’t think the change will be as drastic as we might expect. Two loss teams will find themselves in the Playoff for the first time, but a three-loss team is a stretch. Every game will still matter, and if the Ducks finish the season with three losses, I don’t see a way they make the Playoff. They’ll have to win the games that count.