When the Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football, first place in the AFC East will be on the line. There is no shortage of storylines to tonight’s contest, as even the weather might be a factor when these rivals square off.
A six-game winning streak has propelled the Patriots to the top of the division, allowing many to point to the quick turnaround in New England as one of Bill Belichick’s best accomplishments over his storied career. While there are a number of reasons for New England’s success, including their off-season spending spree, the impact of free agents such as Matthew Judon, and their success in the run game and on the defensive side of the football, of course rookie quarterback Mac Jones is getting his share of the credit.
That is how it works with quarterbacks, after all. They get a ton of credit when the team is winning, and a huge chunk of the blame when things go wrong, whether warranted or not.
To his credit, Jones has been improving as the season rolls on, But one are of the Patriots’ passing game that might not be a surprise, given how they have structured their offense over the years up to and including this season, is the play-action passing game.
Even here, Jones has shown improvement.
At this point in the NFL campaign, Jones is one of the more successful passers when the Patriots dial up play-action designs. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Jones has an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 82.8% on play-action designs this season, tying him for fifth-best in the league with Dak Prescott among qualified passers. His raw completion percentage jumps from 67.8% to 77.1% when using play-action, and that difference of 9.3% is fifth-best in the league among qualified passers.
Overall, Jones has completed 81 of 105 passes for 1,001 yards and four touchdowns, against three interceptions, when using play-action this season.
But when you break this down a bit, looking at New England’s first six games, and then their current six-game winning streak, you can see how Jones has improved even in this small part of the game. During the Patriots’ first six games of the season, Jones posted an ACP of 81.3%, placing him 11th in the NFL. His Yards Per Attempt (YPA) on play-action designs was 8.0, tying him for 16th in the NFL among qualified passers.
During the Patriots’ six-game win streak? Jones’ ACP of 84.3% places him fifth in the league, and his YPA of 10.8 on play-action designs is fourth-best in the NFL among qualified passers.
Again, none of this should really be a surprise, given on the Patriots have structured their offense over the past two decades, and how Jones operated the Alabama offense a season ago.
Having examined the numbers, now let us examine how the Patriots are using Jones and play-action. As you might expect, Josh McDaniels likes to give Jones opportunities to attack quickly on crossing routes, hoping to draw down the second-level defenders and giving his rookie passer some big throwing lanes.
Back in Week 8 against the Los Angeles Chargers, Jones connected with tight end Hunter Henry on this play-action concept:
First, a note on the personnel. New England aligns with 21 personnel for this play, with fullback Jakob Johnson in the game along with running back Damien Harris. The Patriots are one of the handful of NFL teams that rely on two-back packages, as New England as used 21 personnel on a fitting 21% of their snaps to date, behind only Baltimore and San Francisco. Johnson, the fullback, has become a critical component to New England’s ground game, and his presence and this personnel package helps sell run to the defense.
But here, Jones targets Henry on the crossing route, and you’ll see how the second-level defenders work downhill, creating the space for the easy read and throw:
On this play against the Tennessee Titans, McDaniels calls upon 11 offensive personnel, putting three wide receivers in the game. He will show the Titans a lot of eye candy, motioning wide receiver Kendrick Bourne into the backfield and then sending him on a swing route to the right, while Jones carries out a run fake to Rhamondre Stevenson, who aims left:
As with the previous example, the eye candy (Bourne’s swing route, the fake to Stevenson) draw the attention of the second-level defenders, and this time tight end Jonnu Smith is the beneficiary on his crossing route:
For his part, the rookie passer does a good job of selling the swing route to Bourne, setting his eyes and feet to the outside before coming to the middle and targeting the tight end.
Against the Titans, McDaniels turned to another run design to spring Smith on a crossing route. On this play, the Patriots fake a toss to the left side and move the offensive line in that direction in front of Harris, in the game at RB. After showing the fake, Jones rolls to the right and picks up Smith, who is open again on a crossing route:
This play is a good example of how offensive play designers can tie their run-looks to play-action designs. The Patriots like to run “crack toss,” where an outside receiver executes a crack block on a linebacker or edge defender, enabling an offensive lineman to pull to the outside and get in front of the back. Here, Henry motions into the formation and executes a crack block, as the line all pull to the outside to help sell the run.
When you hear analysts talk about how you do not need a great running game to be effective on play-action, this is what they are referring to: Tying your run-game concepts and blocking elements to what you do on play-action. The blocking looks like run, so the second-level defenders react accordingly.
Monday night, Jones will be facing perhaps the best defense he has seen as a professional, as the Bills sport talent at both the second-level and perhaps the best safety tandem in the NFL. Given what New England has done recently — and what the weather might look like — the run game might be a heavy part of their play script.
Which, in turn, sets up what they are doing on play-action. An area where Jones has improved during New England’s win streak.