When perusing Defensive Player of the Year odds for the 2020 NFL season, a predictable name sits at the top of the list: Aaron Donald. The Rams defensive tackle is not only one of the best defenders in the game today, but arguably the best overall player in the league regardless of position.
He’s the favorite to win the award for the third time in his career, sitting at +750 (15/2) – ahead of Khalil Mack (+1000) and J.J. Watt (+1200). But if you look further down the candidates at BetMGM, you’ll see Jalen Ramsey at +5000. He’s tied for the 22nd-best odds among all defensive players, right there with a group of nine players that includes DeForest Buckner, Melvin Ingram and Tyrann Mathieu.
Ramsey has the third-best odds among cornerbacks (Stephon Gilmore and Tre’Davious White are ahead of him) and is sixth in terms of all defensive backs; Derwin James, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Jamal Adams all have better odds.
After looking over the top candidates to win Defensive Player of the Year, is it possible Ramsey is being underrated? Certainly, especially given the circumstances.
Gilmore won the award last year, the first time a defensive back won it since 2010 and the first cornerback since Charles Woodson in 2009. Gilmore led the NFL in interceptions (6) and passes defensed (20) and allowed zero touchdowns all season. It was a stellar season from the Patriots corner, who helped lead New England to a historically dominant start to the year on defense.
When Polamalu won the award in 2010, he had seven interceptions and 63 tackles, breaking up 11 passes. Woodson led the league with nine interceptions and three pick-sixes in 2009 when he won Defensive Player of the Year.
All this is to help set the table for how Ramsey can win this coveted award in 2020. It won’t be easy, of course, but he has the potential to finish as the best defender in the league.
His career-high in interceptions was four in 2017, a year in which he also broke up 17 passes. He only had one interception in 12 games last year and five total pass breakups, but the 2019 season was an outlier for him.
He was in the midst of a spat with the Jaguars, sat out with a back injury before being traded to the Rams, where he had little time to get acclimated to Wade Phillips’ scheme. He still played relatively well and made the Pro Bowl, but it wasn’t the 2017 version of Ramsey.
That version of him could – and should – come out next season under new defensive coordinator Brandon Staley.
Staley has already hinted at Ramsey being used as more than just a cornerback, indicating that he can play boundary corner, in the slot and at safety. Ramsey, himself, has had to contain his excitement for his role in Staley’s scheme, saying his “talents will be shown thoroughly.”
It remains to be seen how exactly Ramsey will be deployed, but with how much man coverage the Rams are expected to play, don’t be surprised to see him lining up all over the field. He’ll match up with No. 1 receivers such as DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper, most likely. He could also man-up George Kittle twice a year, since he’s the 49ers’ biggest weapon on offense.
In order to win Defensive Player of the Year, Ramsey will have to lock down just about every receiver he matches up against – like Gilmore did a year ago. And it won’t be enough to pick off one or two passes, either. Ramsey will probably need at minimum four interceptions and at least 12 pass breakups in order to be in contention, because there is a statistical element to the voting process where interceptions and deflections are heavily considered.
Ramsey has reached those numbers in his career before, so there’s no reason to believe he can’t do it again. Much of it will come down to him seeing enough passes come his way, though. Because if quarterbacks don’t target him, his opportunities will be limited in coverage. For instance, he was only targeted 68 times last season compared to 113 in 2018 – though he did play four fewer games in 2019.
The other important factor to consider is team defense. The Patriots were first in points and yards allowed last season when Gilmore won the award. In 2010, Polamalu’s year, the Steelers were first in points and second in yards. In 2009 when Woodson won it, the Packers were seventh in points and second in yards. In 2007, Sanders’ Colts were first in points and third in yards.
Defensive Player of the Year typically goes to a player on one of the best defenses, with Donald being an exception to that trend in 2017 and 2018. For Ramsey, he needs the Rams to really improve on defense, which will be tough after all the changes they made and losses they suffered this offseason.
But don’t count Ramsey out as a real candidate to win Defensive Player of the Year. He’s still an elite cornerback and is set to play for a coordinator who will feature him prominently in the secondary. That’s a recipe for success.