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The New York Jets have finally moved on from quarterback Sam Darnold. On Monday, the Jets traded Darnold to the Carolina Panthers for a package of draft picks, none of them a first-rounder. It’s a bargain-basement price for the Panthers to acquire the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft after three star-crossed, poorly coached years in New York.
The trade has some definite impact on the Detroit Lions and the options for the team with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft.
Trading for Darnold appears to take the Panthers out of the market for drafting a quarterback in this draft. Giving up a sixth-round pick this year as well as a second and fourth in 2022 is enough of a commitment that the Panthers are giving Darnold a shot to jumpstart his fledgling career. Darnold is still just 23, barely a year older than Ohio State’s Justin Fields, and he’s already got three years of NFL experience.
It also takes the Panthers out of trading up from No. 8 overall, one spot behind the Lions. With quarterbacks nearly guaranteed to go 1-2-3 after the recent trade up by the 49ers and now the Jets jettisoning Darnold, the Panthers either figured out they had no shot at the fourth QB or preferred Darnold to that player.
Let’s explore the former concept there, that the Panthers realized the No. 4 QB wasn’t going to make it to No. 8. With three QBs going at the top, that means the Panthers believe (in this role play) that either the Atlanta Falcons at No. 4 overall are taking a QB or a team below them (Denver? New England? Chicago?) is trading up with Atlanta to get that player.
Cincinnati at No. 5 has no need for a QB, they just drafted Joe Burrow No. 1 overall. Miami at No. 6 traded back up from No. 12 and did so with the hope of making it work with their top-5 QB from a year ago, Tua Tagovailoa.
Of course the Lions at No. 7 could take a quarterback, though that possibility seems unlikely. The recent salary restructure to Jared Goff’s contract showed the Lions’ commitment to Goff to be the starter for at least 2021. If the Lions want to take that fourth QB–almost certainly either Trey Lance or Justin Fields–they have more trade ammo than any other team to offer the Falcons for that No. 4 pick.
If the Falcons do take a quarterback at No. 4, and that’s certainly possible but also far from a given, the Lions pick at No. 7 becomes more intriguing for a team trading up to get that fifth quarterback. Denver at No. 9 could be interested in taking a QB after two uneven years with Drew Lock. Jumping to the Lions would ensure that a QB-needy team (again, the Patriots and Bears make the most sense) would get their man before the Broncos get a chance.
Of course that would mean four QBs are off the board already when Detroit picks. With only two other picks in front, the Lions would be getting a bigger pool of the non-QB of their choosing. It’s more likely that a player like LSU WR Ja’Marr Chase, Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle, Oregon OL Penei Sewell, Florida TE Kyle Pitts or Alabama CB Patrick Surtain–whomever Detroit covets the most from that group–would be there for the taking for Holmes and the Lions.
Where it gets really interesting is if the Falcons don’t take a quarterback, and a team like the Broncos or Bears can’t make it work to trade up with the Dolphins or Bengals. The Lions could then have their pick of the fourth QB for themselves, or to dangle it as trade fodder. Or they could get their pick of the other positions.