How conference championship weekend could alter the CFP picture

Can any team lose and still make the College Football Playoff?

Welcome to Before The Snap, For The Win’s college football show where we’ll break down the sport’s trending storylines, examine each week’s biggest matchups and track the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy races.

It’s conference championship weekend, and there are huge College Football Playoff implications for these matchups, particularly regarding the Big 12 and Pac-12 title games.

If the top-3 teams, Ohio State, LSU and Clemson, all win, who gets the last spot? Could one of the top teams lose and still get in?

Here’s what you need to know about the Power Five conference championship games and what they could mean for the four-team playoff, which will be announced Sunday.

(Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)

Pac-12 championship game: No. 5 Utah (11-1) vs. No. 13 Oregon (10-2)

When: Friday, December 6, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
Channel: ABC
Spread: Utah (-6.5)

With two losses, Oregon is out of the playoff picture, but Utah is very much in it. The best thing it can do to enhance its playoff resume is not just beat the Ducks but beat them by a lot. Utah has to do everything it can to separate itself from the eventual Big 12 winner, assuming the top-3 teams also win.

Big 12 championship game: No. 7 Baylor (11-1) vs. No. 6 Oklahoma (11-1)

When: Saturday, December 7, Noon ET
Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
Channel: ABC
Spread: Oklahoma (-9)

Oklahoma and Baylor are in a similar situation with Utah. The champion needs to find a way to elevate its resume enough to jump Utah in the rankings, and, again, that means having a convincing win. In this rematch, one team needs to grab a big lead and hang onto it, unlike the last game when Baylor blew a 28-3 lead and Oklahoma ultimately won, 34-31. But the best thing for the winner’s playoff argument is if Utah loses, while Ohio State and LSU win.

SEC championship game: No. 4 Georgia (11-1) vs. No. 2 LSU (12-0)

When: Saturday, December 7, 4 p.m. ET
Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Channel: CBS
Spread: LSU (-7)

With the way LSU has been playing leading up to its first conference title game since 2011, it might be the only team that could lose this weekend and still make the playoff. However, even though Georgia has one of the best defenses in the nation, it will take a lot to slow the Tigers down. For the Bulldogs, they need to win to make the playoff because what would be their second loss would knock them out of contention against one-loss conference champs. But if Georgia wins, then the SEC might get two teams in.

ACC championship game: No. 23 Virginia (9-3) vs. No. 3 Clemson (12-0)

When: Saturday, December 7, 7:30 p.m. ET
Where: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina
Channel: ABC
Spread: Clemson (-28.5)

While it irks Dabo Swinney, he’s right when he says Clemson can’t lose and still make the playoff. Its strength of schedule is just too weak to go 12-1 and still get in. But there’s no way Virginia is beating the Tigers, who might put up 50 points in this game.

Big Ten championship game: No. 1 Ohio State (12-0) vs. No. 8 Wisconsin (10-2)

When: Saturday, December 7, 8 p.m. ET
Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
Channel: FOX
Spread: Ohio State (-16.5)

If Wisconsin can pull off the upset there, there’s a chance the College Football Playoff will have its first two-loss team. The alternative would be to ignore the Big Ten entirely, but that doesn’t seem likely this year. But when these two teams met earlier this season, it was hardly a contest with Ohio State winning, 38-7, and a second win against the Badgers this season would hand the Buckeyes their third consecutive conference championship.

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