As the training camp creeps closer and closer, people can feel the excitement of the season slowly rise with each day. With the NFLPA clearing the accommodations offered by the NFL, including no preseason, teams are ready to report and get prepared for the 2020 season.
The Raiders offense comes into 2020 with a ton of hype. After finishing last year fifth in total efficiency according to ESPN and ninth in football outsiders DVOA, those expectations are extremely warranted. Plus, adding Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards, and Lynn Bowden in the draft has fans fuming out the mouth.
Even with all that efficiency from the offense, the Raiders still struggled scoring points. The Raiders finished at 19.6 points per game. The attack is not built on explosive plays and more based on ball control, especially when they are in the bottom half in offensive pace. This makes the red zone an essential area of the field, and the Raiders struggled there late.
The Raiders actually started off the season pretty well in the red zone. During the first nine games of the season, the Raiders were 12th in red-zone percentage, but then it all fell apart. They finished the seasoned tied for 22nd in the NFL while coming in at 14th in attempts. This helped them finished the season averaging 14.6 PPG in the last six games.
People like to point the finger at several issues, mainly the quarterback and the head coach. While they do play significant factors, let’s see what other items the Raiders have and how they can improve in the red zone.
Shotgun Runs
NFL is a passing league, and every analytical website will tell this 800 times over. Running backs have been devalued more than ever before, but the place where they still are useful is in the red zone. However, the Raiders struggled to run the ball inside the five-yard line effectively in 2019.
Out of the 19 carries for the Raiders inside the five, the Raiders only scored eight touchdowns. If you take out Derek Carr’s scrambles, that turns into six out of 16, which is a 37 percent touchdown rate inside the five-yard line. Inside the three, Josh Jacobs and Alec Ingold had 12 attempts rushing the football and only four touchdowns, which were all by Jacobs.
Overall the rushing attacked finished 23rd in success rate according to Sharp Football running the hall in the red zone. The main reason for this is everyone knows when the Raiders are going to run the ball. They become very traditional often in 23 (two running backs, three tight ends) or 22 personnel and rarely play-action out of it.
A great solution is shotgun rushes to help empty the box and make more one on one scenarios for the offensive line. The success rate when running the ball from shotgun always has more significant success rates. The run game needs a spark in the red zone, and spreading the defense out for better numbers might be the answer.
Creativity with TE DarrenWaller
One thing we did learn last year is that Darren Waller is a YAC machine. He is a monster with the ball in his hands and is tough to take down. That’s why Gruden has to find more creative ways to get him the ball in space for him an impact in the red zone.
Waller did the lead the team in targets inside the red zone but only 4 targets inside the ten where two of them went for touchdowns. Waller explosiveness was underutilized in that area, but the play below is an excellent example of what the Raiders could do.
This play against the Texans is the Raiders in the shotgun in 11 personnel from the Texans eight-yard line. The Raiders will be running a split zone play-action fake with Waller releasing out into the flat. The Texans bite on the fake, and Waller is wide open with space to run. He outruns the corner and finds his way into the end zone.
Waller is a locomotive at the tight end position. If Gruden can get creative with finding different ideas to manufacture more touches for the rising star, the offense could produce more points.
QB Derek Carr Hitting Tight Windows
Carr is a polarizing player in Raider nation and usually gets the blame for everything that goes wrong. However, the red area is a place he has struggled with in the past, and he needs to be more willing to throw into tight coverage.
Carr has been avoiding tight-window throws for the past couple of seasons. He ranked second to last out of all eligible quarterbacks in aggressive percentage which NFL next-gen stats uses to judge these type of passes. The play below is an excellent example of Carr not being aggressive when the opportunity arises.
Down 35-17 against the Packers, Raiders were looking to make it a two-score game. They come out in a 2×2 set with the offense running their usual double jerk routes, which usually have the inside receiver running corner routes, which Marcell Ateman does above.
Darren Waller, this time runs a quick slant towards the back of the end zone and does an excellent job finding the window between the safety and the corner. Carr doesn’t throw it to him probably because Blake Martinez is lurking, but he has to make that throw into that window. The Raiders failed to score on this drive.
Carr has to trust his talent and play with more confidence down in the red zone. If he uses his arm strength to make tight-window throws and speed the football past underneath linebackers, the offense can take a leap and add more scores.
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