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The Houston Astros (6-14) and Washington Nationals (8-10) meet Friday for the opener of a 3-game series. First pitch from Nationals Park is set for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Nationals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Houston won 2-1 last season
Houston suffered a 5-4 loss at the hands of the Atlanta Braves Wednesday while failing to cash as a +119 home underdog. Houston was swept 3-0 by Atlanta, allowing the Braves to score at least 5 runs in every game. The Astros have lost 3 straight games and are only 2-4 in their last 6 at home.
Washington picked up a 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Dodgers Wednesday as a +196 road underdog. The Nationals have won 2 of their last 3 games. Wednesday’s win wrapped up a 9-game road stretch for the Nationals, who went 5-4 over that span.
Astros at Nationals projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. LHP MacKenzie Gore
Verlander (13-8, 3.22 ERA in 2023) makes his season debut. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 162 1/3 IP in 27 starts last season as a member of the Astros and New York Mets.
- 2023 road splits: 7-3, 3.20 ERA (76 IP, 27 ER), 65 H, 26 BB, 62 K across 13 starts
- Career vs. Washington: 4-0, 1.85 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 18 H, 9 BB, 27 K through 4 starts
Gore (2-0, 2.81 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 12.9 K/9 in 16 innings.
- Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 11 K in 3-1 road win vs. Oakland Athletics Saturday
- Career vs. Houston: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 4 K in 1 start, a 4-1 road win June 15, 2023
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Astros at Nationals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 9:10 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (-105) | Nationals +1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Astros at Nationals picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 3, Nationals 2
Moneyline
PASS.
I like Houston (-175) to win here, as the Astros have won 3 of their last 4 vs. Washington (+145) and are 6-4 in the last 10 meetings. However, the Astros are not worth the risk of betting on as such heavy favorites, especially with how cold they are entering this matchup.
Bet the run line and/or Over/Under instead.
Run line/Against the spread
LEAN NATIONALS +1.5 (-115).
The Nationals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games vs. the American League. Washington is also 11-7 ATS this season, while the Astros are only 7-13 ATS this year.
The Astros are also very cold. They’ve lost 3 straight and are only 3-7 in their last 10 games, which makes this bet slightly safer.
This is only a lean because neither team is very hot and the Nationals are only 2-4 at home this season.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).
The Under has hit in each of Houston’s last 3 games and is 11-8-1 for the Astros this season.
For Washington, the Under has hit in back-to-back games and is 7-3 in its last 10 outings.
The Under has also hit in 3 of the last 4 Houston-Washington matchups.
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