The Houston Astros (13-11) and Tampa Bay Rays (20-4) will wrap up their 3-game series Wednesday at Tropicana Field. First pitch from St. Petersburg will be at 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Rays odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
These teams split the 1st 2 games of the series and each have scored a total of 8 runs. The Astros bounced back from an 8-3 loss on Monday to beat the Rays 5-0 on Tuesday, getting 6 shutout innings from SP Luis Garcia and outhitting Tampa Bay 11-5. It snapped the Rays’ 6-game winning streak and gave Houston its 5th win in the last 6 games.
The Rays have been by far the best team in the league this season, 4 games better than the next-closest team. They’re 14-1 at home and have an overall plus-88 run differential, 30 better than everyone else. After a red-hot start, they’ve lost 4 games in their last 11, so they’ve begun to come back down to earth.
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Astros at Rays projected starters
RHP Hunter Brown vs. RHP Calvin Faucher
Brown (2-0, 3.09 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 in 23 1/3 IP.
- In 2 starts this season, he has pitched 7 shutout innings; in his other 2 starts he allowed 4 runs in 4 2/3 innings
- Has struck out 5 batters in 2 of his starts and 7 in his other 2 starts
Faucher (0-0, 5.91 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 10 2/3 IP.
- Operated as the opener in his last 2 appearances, pitching 2 innings in his most recent start and 2 2/3 in the previous one
- Hasn’t thrown more than 46 pitches in an outing yet
- The Rays are 1-1 in the 2 games he has started
Astros at Rays odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:08 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Rays -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros +1.5 (-190) | Rays -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Astros at Rays picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Rays 4
Moneyline
This game sets up well for the Astros, who are facing Faucher – an opener who won’t go deep into the game. He’s already given up 2 HRs in only 10 2/3 innings, along with 14 hits, so he’s susceptible to getting hit hard.
The Rays aren’t on the tear they were on to start the year and have dropped 4 of their last 11, one of which was with Faucher starting the game. BET ASTROS (+105) to win outright.
Run line/Against the spread
With this being a relatively even matchup, I don’t love betting the Astros on the run line because. Though I expect them to cover, it’s not worth the juice at -190 when you can just bet them to win outright at +105.
The Astros also haven’t lost a game by fewer than 2 runs since April 7, so betting them to cover the 1.5-run margin isn’t the best way to play this game. PASS.
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Over/Under
The total went over in the 1st meeting between these teams and under in the 2nd, so there isn’t a strong trend to follow in this season series. However, the Over is 15-8-1 in Astros games and 13-8-3 in Rays games, according to Covers.
The Rays’ pitching staff is excellent and ranks 1st in team ERA (2.82), but they’re facing a tough Astros lineup Wednesday. BET OVER 8.5 (-105).
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