The Houston Astros (42-36) and St. Louis Cardinals (32-45) open up a 3-game set Tuesday at Busch Stadium. First pitch is at 7:45 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Astros vs. Cardinals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting since Houston won 2 of 3 meetings in 2019
The Astros are in a rough patch, winners of just 3 of the last 10. They’re 7-13 over the last 20 and 14-16 over the last 30 games to fall into 3rd place, 5 games behind the Texas Rangers in the NL West. 2B Jose Altuve is questionable; he sat out out Sunday after injuring his heel running out a bunt Saturday.
The Cards haven’t announced a starter, but it’s expected to be LHP Jordan Montgomery. After the Cards were embarrassed 9-1 by the Chicago Cubs in the 1st game in London Saturday, RHP Jack Flaherty was scratched Sunday with a sore hip, and LHP Matthew Liberatore moved up to take his place. The Cards won that game 7-5. They are still just 7-13 and 12-18 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively, and are 8 1/2 games out in NL Central.
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Astros at Cardinals projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Jordan Montgomery
Valdez (7-5, 2.27 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and a 9.5 K/9 in 99 innings.
- Last start: Win, 8 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 9 K last Tuesday against New York Mets
- Last 7 starts: 4-1, 2.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 47 K in 46 IP
Montgomery (4-7, 3.69 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and a 8.3 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K last Tuesday against Washington Nationals
- Has struggled at home with a 4.62 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 7 starts vs. a 2.91 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in 8 road starts
Astros at Cardinals odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:35 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Astros -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Cardinals +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+135) | Cardinals +1.5 (-160)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Astros at Cardinals picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 4, Cardinals 1
Moneyline
Valdez is 2nd in the AL in ERA and is a contender for the Cy Young Award. He has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 11 of 15 starts this season, and St. Louis is just 8-11 against left-handed starters. Montgomery has pitched better than his 4-7 record, and he has been haunted by a .319 BABIP. He’ll keep the Cards in it, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.38 ERA in 5 career starts against the Astros.
Take the ASTROS -120.
Run line/Against the spread
The Astros are 4-1 in their last 5 meetings in St. Louis, but these teams are very different than they were in 2019. Houston’s pitching isn’t where it once was, and the Cardinals’ pitching is bad from top to bottom. The left-hander Valdez should keep a potent bat in 2B Nolan Gorman on the bench Tuesday, and frankly, Montgomery will have to nearly throw a shutout for this W. The Cards’ bullpen is 18th with a 4.01 ERA.
I’ll take the ASTROS -1.5 (+135).
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Over/Under
The Astros are 6-4 O/U over the last 10. The Cards are 5-4-1, but they just had 2 games in London with totals of 13 and 12 and went 0-1-1 O/U in them. This should be an Under game with the way Valdez has pitched all year and the way Montgomery has competed.
UNDER 8 (+100) is a solid choice.
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