The Seattle Mariners (51-44) host the Houston Astros (63-32) at T-Mobile Park Sunday in the finale of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
Season series: Astros lead 8-6.
The Astros have won the first 2 games of the series, each by more than 1 run. However, in their 4 prior series against the Mariners this season, they’ve only swept Seattle once. Houston has won 4 straight games.
The Mariners sit 2nd in the AL West, which was helped by their 14-game win streak prior to this series.
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Astros at Mariners projected starters
LHP Framber Valdez vs. LHP Robbie Ray
Valdez (8-4, 2.66 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 115 IP.
- First start vs. the Mariners this season. The Astros are 11-7 in games he’s started.
- Has given up just 6 ER in his last 3 starts covering 20 IP. His 2 complete games leads the majors.
Ray (8-6, 3.54 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 117 IP.
- He led MLB in games started (pitchers), IP, and ERA last season. He has a career 29.1% strikeout rate.
- In his lone start against Houston this season, the Mariners won 7-4, but Ray did allow 4 ER on 8 hits. Seattle is 12-7 in his starts.
Astros at Mariners odds and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 12:28 p.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Astros -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Mariners +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -145 | U: +115)
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Astros at Mariners picks and predictions
Prediction
Astros 5, Mariners 3
Money line
PASS.
Houston has won both the last 2 games by more than 1 run, so I’ll slide with the juicier payout on the run line.
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Run line/Against the spread
BET ASTROS -1.5 (+140).
The Astros have quenched the Mariners’ offense this series, allowing just 3 runs. When Valdez is on the mound, he’s been able to continue that trend. Houston has won 8 of his last 12 starts by more than a run.
Also, the Astros have the 3rd-fewest strikeouts and 3rd-most home runs, both of which won’t bode well for Ray, who has already struggled against Houston this season.
Houston is 33-18 SU on the road and Seattle is 20-23 on the run line following a loss. Combine it all, and I’ll take the Astros to win by 2 or more.
Over/Under
LEAN OVER 6.5 (-145).
The odds aren’t necessarily there, but this total is too low to pass on. Ray gave up 4 ER the last time he pitched against Houston.
Also, the Mariners rank 17th in slugging percentage and 10th in on-base percentage. They should be able to figure out how to put up more than one run against Valdez, who has given up at least 2 ER in 3 straight starts.
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