The Houston Astros (78-54) and Seattle Mariners (71-62) meet Wednesday at 4:10 p.m. ET to put a bow on a three-game AL West series at T-Mobile Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Mariners odds with MLB picks and predictions.
RHP Jake Odorizzi is the projected starting pitcher for the Astros. The veteran hurler is 6-6 with a 4.46 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, and 3.1 BB/9 over 84 2/3 IP in 18 starts and one relief appearance.
- Current Mariners own an aggregate .777 OPS and .268 isolated power against Odorizzi.
- The right-hander owns a 7.77 ERA over his last five road turns and a 5.13 road mark for the season.
RHP Logan Gilbert is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 5-5 with a 5.44 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 10.2 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9 over 86 IP across 18 starts.
- Has been rocked for 19 ER in 12 2/3 IP over his last three starts, two of which were at home. The middle of those three games was a disaster in Houston where he allowed 9 ER on 8 H through 4 2/3 IP.
- Has been sunk by a 62.9% left-on-base rate.
- Posted a 3.51 ERA in the first half of the season.
Astros at Mariners odds, lines, picks and prediction
MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:21 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Astros -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Mariners +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
- Against the spread/ATS: Astros -1.5 (+122) | Mariners +1.5 (-150)
- Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)
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Prediction
Astros 4, Mariners 3
Money line (ML)
Houston and Seattle have split the first two games of the series. For the year the Astros are 9-6 (plus-24 run differential) against the Mariners.
The Mariners are 39-29 at home but with a -10 run differential in those games. Overall, the Mariners are playing .628 ball in 1-run games and are under-.500 the rest of the time. Those are indicators of a club too far over its skis.
However, the starting pitcher matchup makes for a change-up here. Gilbert has a 20.9% K-BB percentage, and his stuff and expected-ERA figures belie his surface ERA and his recent slump. Also, the Mariners have hit Odorizzi well.
PASS. Signals are still crossed, but there is some value to be had on the run line.
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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
Seattle’s bullpen is in slightly better shape for this third game of the series. Houston is 1-4 over its last five road get-away games.
TAKE THE MARINERS +1.5 (-150).
Over/Under (O/U)
Looking at runs scored figures and support analytics call into question the validity of both offenses. Add in some contrarian-to-surface-numbers lean on Gilbert, and BACK THE UNDER 8.5 (-105).
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